COVID-19 Policy Update #98
COVID-19 Policy Update
FRIDAY 9/4
TOP THREE
Jobs Report:
1.35 million jobs were added in August and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4% (beating estimates of 9.8%).
The underlying data show a divergent recovery. Unemployment for white workers was 7.3% versus above 10% for Black, Hispanic and Asian workers. The unemployment rate for those without a high-school diploma was 12.6% compared to just 5.6% with those holding a bachelor’s degree or higher.
The job growth was inflated by the hiring of ]240,000 temporary Census workers, most of whom will be laid off next month.
More troubling, the number of permanent job losses rose by about 500,000 to 3.4 million, the highest level since 2013.
Former Obama CEA Director Jason Furman has a good thread on the numbers, including "8.4% is much lower than most anyone would have thought a few months ago. It is still a bad recession but not a historically unprecedented event or one we need to go back to the Great Depression for comparison." Republican pollster David Winston noted that there were 30 consecutive months of 9% or greater unemployment from April 2009 through September 2011.
Also interesting: A quarter of employed people worked from home last month.
Connecticut: The State Department of Education is hearing from districts that between 25% to 30% of the state’s teachers are requesting not to physically return to school.
IHME Weekly Report: Estimated cumulative deaths expected by January 1 will be 410,000 - 225,000 additional deaths from now until the end of the year. Maps below show the months of assumed mandate reimplementation, forecasted percent infected by Jan. 1, and forecasted COVID deaths per million by Jan 1. Full briefing and state maps here.
FEDERAL
Phase 4: According to the Washington Post, the Sen. Cruz is pushing the Administration's $5 billion education tax credit plan which "is threatening to derail a Senate GOP effort to write a slimmed-down coronavirus relief bill." "Cruz’s attempt to include the provision in the new Senate bill has emerged as a final stumbling block to completing the legislation, according to three people with knowledge of the talks, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss them."
STATE
Connecticut: The state has created a rapid response team to assist with COVID infections at schools.
Delaware: A Cape Henlopen High School student has filed a federal lawsuit over the district’s hybrid learning program, arguing that students who go to classes two days a week get better instruction than students who are learning virtually.
Missouri: The Missouri NEA released a report of 58 cases in schools and called on the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and Gov. Mike Parson to require school districts to report COVID-19 incidents and create a public registry of school-related COVID-19 exposures.
New Mexico: Schools in 25 counties may reopen in a hybrid model after Sept. 8.
INTERNATIONAL
France: After three days of school, France has shut 22 schools out of 60,000 due to cases. There have been 7,000 new infections in France over a 24-hour period for the second time in two days - the highest daily rate in Europe. Researchers are closely watching this to estimate the role of school reopening with transmission.
UK: Students with special needs 'forgotten' as schools reopen. Study says 20,000 children are unlikely to resume classes because of safety concerns.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The K-Shaped Recovery and the Cost of Inaction: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: "The K-shaped recovery is also evident in employment numbers. The financial services sector, for example, has already recovered 94% of its pre-pandemic employment. Leisure and entertainment, on the other hand, has only brought back 74% of the workforce. So, while many of us are lucky to mainly be Zoom-fatigued or otherwise harried by life in a pandemic, for millions of others, the economic impact of COVID is existential." They also estimate that that four million small businesses—13% of America’s 31 million smallest employers—have now exhausted the Payroll Protection Program funds.
RESOURCES
Vaccine Development and Distribution: Three important frameworks released this week:
National Academies Releases Draft Framework for Equitable Allocation of a COVID-19 Vaccine: The draft allocation framework criteria (full report here)
Fair Priority Model: Published in Science and includes Ezekiel J. Emanuel as a coauthor.
BIO Principles to Ensure the “Public’s Trust” in New Medical Products for Eradicating COVID-19: The biopharmaceutical industry's principles for the development, review, and approval of treatments and vaccines.
EdWeek Survey: On teacher morale and other trends. 32% of teachers are reporting that they are likely to leave their jobs this year even though they would have been unlikely to do so prior to the pandemic (up from 26% July 23 and 12% May 28). Enrollment declines were mostly in the early grades. Most parents haven't heard of pods.
Speaking Truth to Power: A cause we can all rally around. Let's remove it from our hearts. Husker Football endorses.
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