COVID-19 Policy Update #118
COVID-19 Policy Update
THURSDAY 10/1
2020 is now 75% complete.
TOP THREE
Study Finds School Reopenings Not Linked To Rising COVID Cases: Per an Insights for Education study of 191 countries.
This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic; It’s Not R: Really interesting and important article from Zeynep Tufekci that might help make sense of the findings from the contact tracing study shared in yesterday's update. We might need to pay more attention to "super spreading" events and contexts:
"In study after study, we see that super-spreading clusters of COVID-19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time—weddings, churches, choirs, gyms, funerals, restaurants, and such—especially when there is loud talking or singing without masks."
"But we don’t need to know all the sufficient factors that go into a super-spreading event to avoid what seems to be a necessary condition most of the time: many people, especially in a poorly ventilated indoor setting, and especially not wearing masks."
"In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals."
"Overdispersion makes it harder for us to absorb lessons from the world, because it interferes with how we ordinarily think about cause and effect. For example, it means that events that result in spreading and non-spreading of the virus are asymmetric in their ability to inform us."
"Once a country has too many outbreaks, it’s almost as if the pandemic switches into “flu mode,” as Scarpino put it, meaning high, sustained levels of community spread even though a majority of infected people may not be transmitting onward"
"Could we get back to a much more normal life by focusing on limiting the conditions for super-spreading events, aggressively engaging in cluster-busting, and deploying cheap, rapid mass tests—that is, once we get our case numbers down to low enough numbers to carry out such a strategy?"
Learning Loss: New CREDO Study: Across the 19 states, the average estimates of how much students lost in the Spring of 2020 ranged from 57 to 183 days of learning in Reading and from 136 to 232 days of learning in Math.
FEDERAL
Phase 4: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin offered a $1.62 trillion COVID-19 relief proposal in talks with Speaker Pelosi, but a deal does not seem to be within sight. According to Roll Call:
Mnuchin’s plan included $250 billion for state and local governments, which is $186 billion less than Democrats want in their latest $2.2 trillion package, but $100 billion more than the White House offered in talks that broke down over the summer.
On unemployment insurance, Mnuchin proposed a $400 per week federal benefit, retroactive to Sept. 12 and lasting through Jan. 1, 2021. That's less than the $600 a week Democrats want, but $100 more than Senate Republicans have proposed.
CR: President Trump signed the CR into law last evening, funding the federal government until Dec. 11.
ED: IES Director Mark Schneider on pandemic learning loss and IES's support for research and development pertaining to digital learning platforms.
CDC:
Updated guidelines for Testing, Screening, and Outbreak Response for Institutions of Higher Education (IHEs).
The CDC Director himself is out with a new article in JAMA on the risks of opening colleges and universities: "Closure of residence halls and campus housing in response to an outbreak could disproportionately affect students with lower socioeconomic status and might actually have minimal effects on the level of transmission on campus and in the surrounding community, especially if the majority of students live off-campus or if high-risk settings (eg, crowded indoor social settings) remain open. A model response—both in planning for and responding to outbreaks—will involve a close partnership between communities and universities to join forces to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission."
STATE
Illinois: The Chicago Teachers Union says CPS is not prepared to reopen.
Maryland: The Baltimore Teachers Union says they don't believe the district has the proper resources to safely bring teachers and students back to school.
Mississippi: "For the first time in state history, every student in the state will have their own device."
Montana: Bozeman schools face custodian, substitute teacher shortages
Rhode Island: Some Providence families left without teachers for online learning.
Texas: North Texas school districts say it’s time for struggling students to come back to campus, especially after some districts reported students not logging in.
Utah: The Utah State Board of Education collected preliminary data for enrollment in the 2020/21 school year on Sept. 9 showing a large increase in the number of students who transferred to private schools or who will be homeschooled this year. One of the biggest increases this year is a 63% increase in the number of students enrolling in online or virtual learning.
INTERNATIONAL
Ireland: Subway sandwiches contain 'too much sugar' to legally be considered bread, Supreme Court rules. Has nothing to do with COVID or education but this has to be a clear example of judicial overreach.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Layoffs: Axios has a summary of upcoming layoffs:
American will begin furloughing 19,000
United warned it could furlough up to 16,000
Spirit will cut 1,000
Disney will lay off 28,000.
Allstate Insurance is laying off 3,800, about 8% of their workers
9,000 Shell Oil workers will be laid off
Fashion designer Ralph Lauren is cutting 3,700
Defense contractor Raytheon is cutting 15,000
The Impact of COVID-19 on Low- to Moderate-Income Communities: 56% of respondents to the Fed’s latest community development pulse survey said it will take more than 12 months for their lower-income communities to return to conditions prior to COVID-19 disruption.
Personal Income: The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August showing a 2.7% decrease in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $570.9 billion (3.2$) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $141.1 billion (1.0%). The Commerce Department said the drop partly reflected the expiration of the expanded $600 unemployment benefit.
Inclusive Recovery Requires Reimagining Local Economic Development: Via The Governance Project and Opportunity Alabama: "The solution rests on a better national system for enabling creative federalism in local development while also providing better tools for local partnerships to form."
Tracking Youth Unemployment: Via Mathematica
LEARNING PODS
Atlanta Launches Pods: The pods are designed for Atlanta Public Schools students who have been unable to connect to virtual classes, due to not having the proper technology at home or a lack of adult supervision during school hours.
Minnesota: SPS Commerce donates $300,000 to sponsor Learning Pod to address Minnesota’s racial achievement gap.
RESOURCES
President Carter: Celebrated his 96th birthday today and he's still building homes for Habitat.
COVID Immunity May Be Short Lasting: New study that is not conclusive but also not promising. They determined that "reinfection with the same seasonal coronavirus occurred frequently at 12 months after infection."
What It Is Like to Be Part of a Vaccine Trial: Two articles:
Coronavirus vaccine trial participants report day-long exhaustion, fever and headaches — but say it’s worth it
A mother and son on "What It’s Like to Participate in a Covid-19 Vaccine Trial"
Study Finds ‘Single Largest Driver’ of Coronavirus Misinformation Is President Trump: Researchers at Cornell University analyzed 38 million articles and found that mentions of President Trump made up nearly 38% of the overall “misinformation conversation."
A Social-Capital Approach to Education Reform: Bruno Manno out with a great piece on social capital, education, and examples of supply and demand side reforms.
Assessments: The Aspen Institute Education & Society Program, along with the National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment, released a new policy brief: Special Considerations for Assessing and Advancing Equity in School-Year 2020-21
Lessons from Remote Learning in Six School Systems: New report from CRPE with insights from big-city districts (Baltimore City Public Schools and Chicago Public Schools), a large inner suburb (Aurora Public Schools), a rural district (Roaring Fork School District), and two CMOs working in urban areas (Green Dot Public Schools and LEARN Charter Schools).
Drones: Are now sanitizing football stadiums... but my Roomba still gets stuck behind the kitchen table.
EdTech Merger: Altitude Learning has agreed to merge with the U.S.-based arm of itslearning, a European learning management system.
WiFi: Seen on GMA this morning: Over 15,000 children's homes surprised with free Wi-Fi.
Charter Introduces Stay Connected K-12: Offering students free broadband and wifi at home.
Virtual Learning Is Leaving Students Behind. Time to End It: Mark Everson, a former commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service who is on the Pascagoula-Gautier School District Superintendent’s Parent Advisory Committee writes in Barrons:
"We are already 20% of the way through the academic year. The devastating impact of a prolonged absence from the classroom is now known. Also increasingly clear is that distance learning does not meet the needs of many of our most vulnerable students, who must be in the classroom to have any meaningful chance at success."
"Waiting until the end of the school year and holding back failing distance learners will be catastrophic. My guess is perhaps 10% of the student body will suffer irrevocable damage."
Visualizing COVID Spread Rates: One of the most clever visualizations to depict the "rate" of transmission in different countries. Uses animation so make sure to check out the link.
Orange Soda: May be a cure for COVID according to Ian Bremmer.