COVID-19 Policy Update #130
COVID-19 Policy Update
MONDAY 10/19
I'm beginning to recognize a pattern that the Monday updates are incredibly long, largely because a lot seems to still happen over the weekends. Because, you know...it's 2020. Julie Mikuta told me that she sometimes needs to pour herself a drink before opening up the day's update. So going forward, Monday updates will feature a drink pairing. Today's is a 2016 Prisoner due to the new curfews imposed throughout Europe. Pour yourself a glass and let's dig in.
--John
TOP THREE
Learning Loss Analysis: Curriculum Associates released data from over 900 schools which offers another estimate of learning loss:
Typically, 19% of second graders show up in the Fall at least two grade levels below in reading. In 2020, that rose to 25%, six percentage points higher than the historical average.
30% of second graders are two or more grade levels below below in math, 10 percentage points higher than the historical average.
More students in higher minority and higher poverty schools tend to be two or more grade levels below this Fall than their peers in lower minority, lower poverty schools.
Georgia: Atlanta Public Schools announced they will not resume in-person classes until at least January.
EU: WSJ article on cases in schools across Europe. "More than a third of the U.K.’s 1,700 coronavirus outbreaks, defined as at least two cases, in the four weeks through Sept. 27 occurred in educational settings. About 35% of the 1,070 outbreaks under investigation in France are in schools or universities. Spain, home to Europe’s biggest epidemic, reported Covid-19 cases in 4.5% of its schools as of Sept 24."
FEDERAL
Phase 4:
The Senate will vote on a $500 billion GOP relief bill on Wednesday. The package includes additional PPP funding and $100 billion for schools as well as money for testing, contact tracing, and vaccine development and distribution.
On Saturday night, Speaker Pelosi indicated she had given the Administration a 48-hour deadline to reconcile differences in stimulus negotiations.
CNBC reported Monday evening that the two talked, made progress, and will talk again tomorrow.
Additional Economic Relief Packages: Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: “A congressional Democratic majority would likely result in substantially more fiscal support. We expect that spending would increase the most under a Democratic sweep of the House, Senate and White House.” More on Goldman's outlook here.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
High School Researcher: Anika Chebrolu, a 14-year-old from Frisco, Texas, won the 2020 3M Young Scientist Challenge. Anika's winning invention uses in-silico methodology to discover a lead molecule that can selectively bind to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
What Explains Geographic Variation? NBER paper that combines an epidemiological model of disease transmission with quasi-random variation arising from the timing of stay-at-home orders to estimate the causal roles of policy interventions and voluntary social distancing. Researchers found most people social distanced not due to policy but to voluntary responses. "Moreover, we show that neither policy nor rates of voluntary social distancing explain a meaningful share of geographic variation. The most important predictors of which cities were hardest hit by the pandemic are exogenous characteristics such as population and density."
Civil Liberties During COVID: NBER paper that used a survey covering 15 countries and over 370,000 respondents to study whether and the extent to which citizens are willing to trade off civil liberties during COVID. It's worth reading the whole study but a few things that jumped out to me:
Many around the world reveal a clear willingness to trade off civil liberties for improved public health conditions - particularly in the short term but less so over time.
Exposure to health risks is associated with greater willingness to trade off civil liberties, though individuals who are more economically disadvantaged are less willing to do so.
Attitudes concerning such "trade-offs are elastic to information." Fancy-econ-NBER talk for saying that people's attitudes are sensitive to information they hear/receive.
The youngest individuals (age 18-25) and those who are unemployed are the subgroups of the population that are the least willing to give up their rights during a crisis.
Implications for our work: "The decrease in willingness over time to sacrifice rights and freedom poses a complex dynamic dilemma regarding the effective implementation of durable public health-related restrictions and the protection of civil liberties. The increasing concern among citizens that their rights and freedom will not be restored post-crisis should raise flags and impose a check on threats to civil liberties that incumbent governments and other actors could pose during the crisis."
Return to College Classes Increased Cases Using data from the New York Times and the American Community Survey, the University of Georgia assessed the effect of this return to campus on viral case growth in counties estimated an increase of 9% in new cases in a 21-day time frame in college counties.
Masks: Good summary by Resolve to Save Lives covering the research on the effectiveness of masks.
STATE
California:
There was an intense debate over the weekend sparked by the Mayor of San Francisco who issued a statement saying, "The fact that our kids aren't in school is what's driving inequity in our city, not the name of a school."
Some San Diego schools have no teachers willing to return to reopened schools.
Data from multiple Bay Area school districts show greater increases in absences during distance learning for some ethnic groups more than others.
Illinois:
Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said the city's private and parochial schools have done a good job mitigating the spread of the virus. She also signaled support for CPS' plan to resume in-person instruction for some students. "Chicago students who have returned to the classrooms in these parochial and private schools, have actually had a lower rate of COVID, about half the rate detected than their counterparts in the community."
CPS enrollment is down by 15,000 students - the largest single-year decline in more than 20 years.
Iowa: The Oelwein Community School District held a Virtual Learning Day for it’s elementary school students. The district is currently using a hybrid model for 5th-12th grade students, but elementary school students are learning in-person. The Virtual Learning Day was designed to create a chance to "practice" remote learning should it be needed.
Louisiana: Dr. Joseph Kanter with the state Office of Public Health said they are not seeing large transmission rates from K12 schools. “Those are not numbers to ignore, but they have not been indicative to us of massive spread."
Maryland: Baltimore Teachers Union urges parents to boycott school reopening.
Michigan: A teacher was giving a virtual lesson when she heard a student's grandma slur her words. Knowing the signs of a stroke, she called 9-11 who rushed the grandmother to the hospital.
New York: The NYT on NYC reporting that out of 16,348 staff members and students tested randomly by the school system in the first week of its testing regimen, the city has gotten back results for 16,298. There were only 28 positives: 20 staff members and eight students. Related - the headline changed halfway through the day.
Ohio: The Cleveland Metropolitan School District had planned to open schools for "fragile learners" which include students with disabilities and seniors currently not on track to graduate. They're now delaying that reopening due to being in one of 29 Ohio counties now placed in “red zones” due to a recent surge of COVID-19 cases.
Oregon: Single mother struggling to work while children distance learn, wants help from state. "It's not fair to make parents choose between their kids' education and their job to support their kids... If they can find funding to help the teachers out, to be in school, to keep that school's funding, why can't they find funding to send to the parents who have to miss work to teach their kids," Henney said.
Rhode Island: Emails detail how Pawtucket officials resisted state’s push to reopen schools.
INTERNATIONAL
Digital Divide: Remote learning is deepening the divide between rich and poor. "From the Andes to Africa to the United States, this is what falling through the cracks looks like: A pandemic generation of poor children shut out of schools and learning. Already disadvantaged by poverty and inequity, they are now in danger of falling further behind."
Canada: Less wealthy, non-white students are over-represented in Toronto District School Board's online-only classes.
Czech Republic: Announced it will close schools in response to a surge of cases.
Egypt: Reopened schools for 23 million students.
Ireland: The Teachers Unions want a review of health guidelines on schools remaining open.
Israel: The Education Ministry presented its plan for returning students to schools at the end of the second lockdown to the Knesset coronavirus committee.
Italy: The country reported more than 10,000 cases on Friday, its highest ever. Part of the response will involve closing high schools.
UK: OpEd from Sir Peter Lampl, founder and chairman, Sutton Trust and Education Endowment Foundation "The PM’s tutoring plans offer hope for undoing Covid damage."
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The Long Shadow of the Pandemic: 2024 and Beyond: Important essay adapted from Dr. Christakis’s new book, “Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live,
"The ripple effects throughout the economy have been enormous, and we have seen only the beginning. Over the intermediate term, cities will be duller, as many small retail firms go out of business, leaving only large, well-capitalized chains to fill the urban landscape. As people continue to shift to working from home, employers will realize that they need less office space, which means fewer custodians, building managers, rental agents and so on."
"If the Roaring Twenties following the 1918 pandemic are a guide, the increased religiosity and abstemiousness of the immediate and intermediate periods could give way to increased expressions of risk-taking, intemperance and joie de vivre in the post-pandemic period. People will relentlessly seek opportunities for social mixing on a larger scale at sporting events, concerts and political rallies."
"The pandemic struck at a time when income inequality in the U.S. was already at a century-long high, in ways that many Americans increasingly see as unsustainable. People may come to better appreciate the essential but unglamorous workers that keep their lives running and may be more sympathetic to wage demands."
"For large numbers of American children in underprivileged circumstances, the effects may linger for years. Quite a few may have experienced the pandemic as a traumatic childhood event—especially if their parents lost their jobs or their lives—and the memory of it will linger. The pandemic may amplify already worrying mental health trends for young people, such as behavioral problems and rising suicide rates."
Returning to Work and the Childcare Dilemma: New U.S. Chamber of Commerce report and survey, the findings of which include:
63% of parents anticipate needing to change their childcare arrangement in the next year, up from 60% in the June survey
61% of parents have returned to work, 26% are likely to return, and 13% are unsure or unlikely to return
50% of parents who have not yet returned to work cite childcare as a reason they have not returned
Among parents who have not yet returned to work, 30% will be unable to return to work if their school district adopts an online learning model
New ISAs: New Horizons Orlando and Tampa Bay closed $25 million to expand their Income Share Agreement (ISAs) for CISCO Cybersecurity and Project Management training programs.
LEARNING PODS
Museum Pods: Museums are combining childcare and education that's more affordable than private tutoring.
Prenda: Colorado parents are exploring microschools.
North Carolina: Story on learning pods and how the Camp Schreiber Foundation created the Front Street Academy.
Mom Creates BIPOC-Led Pods And Microschools Group: "I decided to create my own Facebook group where predominantly BIPOC families could come together to find other BIPOC families not just to share childcare costs and responsibilities but also to center the values they were seeking.”
RESOURCES
Learning Loss: ABC story on learning loss, including these findings from the Opportunity Insights analysis of Zearn Math data.
"As of Oct. 11, students from high-income ZIP codes increased participation in online math coursework by 3.9% compared to January 2020, while for students from low-income ZIP codes it decreased by 10.3%."
"Progress for high-income ZIP codes increased by 11.1% during that time, while for low-income ZIP codes it decreased by 4%."
"These numbers also diverge widely within regions. In Washington, D.C., which has had skyrocketing progress, high-income ZIP codes outperformed low-income ones by 30 percentage points."
Reinvent: Via Education Reimagined: "Everyone Is Talking About ‘Reinventing Education.’ Here Are 10 Schools Actually Doing It."
Education Champions Poll: Democracy Corps surveyed 3,000 voters in Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Montana, and North Carolina. Results. Press Release.
On Practical Wisdom in Statecraft: Andy Smarick writes on schools and COVID arguing the messy process of reopening schools is a feature, not a bug.
It's Monday: You need singing pumpkins.