COVID-19 Policy Update #132
COVID-19 Policy Update
WEDNESDAY 10/21
TOP THREE
School Reopenings:
NPR asks, "Are The Risks Of Reopening Schools Exaggerated?"
"Despite widespread concerns, two new international studies show no consistent relationship between in-person K-12 schooling and the spread of the coronavirus. And a third study from the United States shows no elevated risk to childcare workers who stayed on the job."
"Combined with anecdotal reports from a number of U.S. states where schools are open, as well as a crowdsourced dashboard of around 2,000 U.S. schools, some medical experts are saying it's time to shift the discussion from the risks of opening K-12 schools to the risks of keeping them closed."
OpEd in WSJ: End the School Shutdown
"Tens of millions of students started the school year completely online, including those in 13 of the 15 largest school districts in the U.S. The primary reason is concern over safety for students and staff. But recent data are shifting the discussion on school safety and infection rates of Covid-19. They argue strongly for opening K-12 schools."
Estimating the Scale of the COVID-19 Attendance Crisis: Bellwether is out with a report that estimates as many as 3 million students have connected with their school since March. Well worth the read. State estimates here.
CDC Revises Close Contact Guidance: Previously, the CDC described a "close contact" as someone who spent 15 minutes or more within six feet of someone who was infectious. Now, the agency says it’s someone who spent a cumulative 15 minutes or more within six feet of someone who was infectious over 24 hours, even if the time isn’t consecutive. STAT has more.
FEDERAL
Phase 4:
The $500 billion Senate GOP economic relief package failed on a vote of 51-44, short of the 60 needed for the legislation to proceed.
Additional reports have Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin talking again on Thursday (48 hrs after the 48 hr deadline imposed by the Speaker).
ED: Secretary DeVos said that it's not her responsibility or that of the federal government to track school districts, their coronavirus infection rates and how they're reopening. “Well I'm not sure there's a role for the Department of Education to compile and conduct that research. The data is there for those who want it."
I'll take a bit of editorial privilege to respectfully disagree with the Secretary. It may not be an ED responsibility but there is arguably a federal role. Schools have traditionally played an important role in disease surveillance during annual flu seasons by reporting absenteeism and other critical information to health officials which was then given to the CDC. That role was reinforced through the 2006 National Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan. And, despite the Secretary's assurance that the data is there, it isn't. As the NYT has pointed out, not every state is collecting much less reporting cases in schools.
The breakdown seems to be that the CDC is only collecting data from hospitals, which tells us rates of infection, hospitalization, and death by age. It doesn't provide needed context as to where a child may have been infected. As a result, it is nearly impossible for health officials to determine how school reopenings contributes to COVID transmission. Ideally, researchers should have those numbers connected to schools, along with the number of quarantined students; number of deaths associated with school cases; size of outbreaks linked to index cases; and the incidence rate in the community around the school. Until we have better data, the best available alternative are surveys like the one Emily Oster is conducting with NAESP and AASA.
STATE
California: San Francisco public schools will virtual through the end of the calendar year, citing a lack of coronavirus testing capacity.
Florida: The Governor says any future school closures are 'off the table'. "They don't do anything to mitigate COVID, but they do cause catastrophic damage to the physical, mental and social well-being of our youth. Let's not repeat any mistakes of the past."
Massachusetts:
Education Commissioner Riley told the State Board that he doesn't believe schools are superspreaders. "I think we also really need to think about the fact that we have not seen robust transmission in our schools. And what I mean by that is we've had schools open now for five or six weeks and what we're seeing is, yes there have been cases, but they've been for the most part identified, isolated — people have got close contacts — and the educational programming has been able to continue. I think what we're seeing both across the country and the state is that the fear that schools were going to be seen as super-spreading places has been somewhat unfounded."
Boston public schools suspended its attempt to resume in-person learning, citing the surge of cases in the city.
Washington: Gov. Inslee announced new restrictions for post-secondary institutions including:
Mask at all times except outside dorm
Only five people or visitors at one time in one place
Colleges must provide isolation and quarantine facilities to Greek system houses, off-campus congregate houses, students living in dorms and personnel if they don’t have a place to go
All meals must follow current guidance – grab and go or single tables
INTERNATIONAL
Pakistan: New study from PIDE: School closures have affected 55.3 million children in Pakistan. In assessing the impact of school closures they find that "the yearly earning loss to a student in school today is $234, and the lifetime earning loss is about $2,349. The aggregate economic cost to the current cohort of children amounts to about $129 billion. Besides, nearly 15.5 million children are vulnerable to dropout due to workers’ layoff."
Poland: Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said they will move older primary school students to online learning due to a surge of COVID-19 cases
South Korea: Via the AP:
"Experts say the reduced interaction with teachers, digital distractions and technical difficulties are widening the education achievement gap among students in South Korea."
"A government survey of 51,021 teachers released last month showed about 80% of respondents saw a widening gap between their strongest and weakest students."
"To address the problem, the Education Ministry has hired part-time instructors to help 29,000 underprivileged students at elementary schools. Some teachers have been assigned to work one-on-one temporarily with about 2,300 high schoolers who are struggling."
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Reviving Small Businesses: New report "Big Ideas for Small Business" that explores over 176 pages the challenges facing small businesses. They outline five recommendations:
Forcefully respond to the COVID-19 crisis by providing grant and loan programs that are appropriately scoped.
Unleash America's entrepreneurial spirit by reducing barriers to entry, giving disadvantaged entrepreneurs the tools they need to succeed, and strengthening antitrust laws and enforcement.
Build a financial system that works for Main Street by launching a new generation of federally-backed debt and equity products, and by strengthening community banks and nonprofit financial institutions.
Harness the power of public and private procurement to help build wealth in minority communities.
Require the federal government to collect more and better data on the small business sector and to more rigorously evaluate programs for continuous improvement.
Struggling Households: CBPP estimates that 42% of children live in households that reported it was somewhat or very difficult to cover expenses such as food, rent or mortgage, car payments, medical expenses, or student loans, according to analysis the Census’ Household Pulse Survey.
Thomas Friedman: "After the Pandemic, a Revolution in Education and Work Awaits: "The reason the post-pandemic era will be so destructive and creative is that never have more people had access to so many cheap tools of innovation, never have more people had access to high-powered, inexpensive computing, never have more people had access to such cheap credit — virtually free money — to invent new products and services, all as so many big health, social, environmental and economic problems need solving."
Worsening Opioid Crisis: CDC reported that opioid overdose deaths increased in 2019, reaching 50,000 for the first time. The AP surveyed states that are reporting overdoses, and found more drug-related deaths. "Some parents even reserve a casket while their child is still alive so they are prepared for what they believe is inevitable."
Child Care and College Degrees: DC will require child-care workers to have a college degree.
RESOURCES
Districts Providing Less Learning Time: Chad Aldeman analyzed several districts and found Los Angeles; Clark County, Nevada; Wake County, North Carolina; New York City; Montgomery Country, Maryland; Fairfax; and Chicago are all planning to deliver far less instructional time to students than normal.
New Digital Divide Analysis: NEA and Public Policy Associates released a digital divide report that analyzed 2018 Census data on household internet and digital device access.
School Choice Guidebook: AFC released their annual report on school choice programs in 26 states.
100 Day Agenda: CAP released recommendations for a 100 day agenda, many of which touch on COVID response. They organize their ideas around five areas:
Applying an explicit racial equity lens to policy development
Preparing all students for college and the future workforce
Modernizing and elevating the teaching profession
Dramatically increasing investments in public schools and improving the equity of existing investments
Bringing a balanced approach to charter school policy
Edtech’s Answer to Remote Learning Burnout: a16z post "While previous generations of edtech largely focused on in-school content distribution, more recently founders have turned their attention to after-school and out-of-school education. There’s a lot left to build. We believe post-COVID online education will differ from the past in key ways."
It's Wednesday: In the Shallows Now.