COVID-19 Policy Update #163
COVID-19 Policy Update
TUESDAY 12/8
TOP THREE
Economic Relief Package:
Our partners at PennHill say the $10 billion for broadband in the package is likely to break out: $3.4 billion for E-rate and $6.6 billion to states (likely Governors) to use. It isn't real until there's legislative language, but this is promising.
The White House is reportedly pushing for $600 direct cash benefit as part of the package.
Axios on why Congress is doubling down on PPP.
"The fate this week of the compromise $908 billion coronavirus-relief bill will likely tell us a great deal about how Congress will operate in the Biden Era, especially if Republicans retain control of the Senate."
"Either it passes, and serves as a template for how other legislation can clear Congress — i.e., a bipartisan working group (Joe Manchin, Angus King, Mark Warner, Susan Collins, Mitt Romney, Bill Cassidy) reaches a deal, and Nancy Pelosi’s House Democrats and Joe Biden get behind it."
"Or it ultimately goes nowhere, and serves as a stark warning that little is happening legislatively in divided Washington — unless Democrats can win control of the Senate in next month’s Georgia runoffs."
Head Start Serves as a Model: For how to implement coronavirus protections in child-care facilities and possibly even schools, according to an analysis from the CDC.
The Swiss Cheese Model of Pandemic Defense: I found this NYT article both interesting and helpful in providing a metaphor in thinking through COVID measures.
The metaphor is easy enough to grasp: Multiple layers of protection, imagined as cheese slices, block the spread of the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. No one layer is perfect; each has holes, and when the holes align, the risk of infection increases. But several layers combined — social distancing, plus masks, plus hand-washing, plus testing and tracing, plus ventilation, plus government messaging — significantly reduce the overall risk. Vaccination will add one more protective layer."
"Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, retweeted an infographic rendering of the Swiss cheese model, noting that it included “things that are personal *and* collective responsibility — note the ‘misinformation mouse’ busy eating new holes for the virus to pass through.”
"The Swiss cheese concept originated with James T. Reason, a cognitive psychologist, now a professor emeritus at the University of Manchester, England, in his 1990 book, “Human Error.” A succession of disasters — including the Challenger shuttle explosion, Bhopal and Chernobyl — motivated the concept, and it became known as the “Swiss cheese model of accidents,” with the holes in the cheese slices representing errors that accumulate and lead to adverse events."
"The misinformation mouse can erode any of those layers. People who are uncertain about an intervention may be swayed by a loud and confident-sounding voice proclaiming that a particular layer is ineffective. Usually, that voice is not an expert on the subject at all."
FEDERAL
CR: The House will consider H.R. 8900 – Further Continuing Appropriations Act, 2021, and Other Extensions Act tomorrow, which would extend the current Continuing Resolution (set to expire on Friday, December 11) through next Friday, December 18. The Senate is expected to take up the measure later this week.
Transition: Biden pledges to vaccinate tens of millions, reopen schools in first 100 days. "Biden also wants to open the majority of the country’s schools within the first 100 days of his presidency and provide adequate funding for districts to implement safety measures such as better ventilation and hiring more staff to oversee smaller, more distanced classrooms of children."
A few notes - meeting this timeline largely depends on Congress and the Trump Administration passing an economic package this month that includes education funding. Even then, it still takes weeks for funds to move from the Feds to States to Schools. The pledge might actually be more of a recognition of the growing body of evidence suggesting it is possible to safely reopen schools, particularly elementary schools.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine Study: Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group and chief investigator of the Oxford Vaccine Trial, said: "Today, we have published the interim analysis of the phase III trial and show that this new vaccine has a good safety record and efficacy against the coronavirus.The study, published in the Lancet, is the first peer-reviewed analysis looking into phase 3 data from a vaccine trial.
Pfizer’s Vaccine Offers Strong Protection After First Dose: The FDA's first analysis of the clinical trial data also found that the coronavirus vaccine worked well regardless of a volunteer’s race, weight or age. More at the NYT. It also works fast. Page 30 of this FDA document shows effects in less than 10 days.
Will a COVID-19 Vaccine Be Mandatory for Students? Important article at EdWeek.
"But when a vaccine is available, states have the power to mandate it, per a 1905 Supreme Court ruling, Jacobson v. Commonwealth of Massachusetts. All 50 states require vaccines—typically for diseases such as polio, measles, and tetanus—for children to attend school. However, most states allow families to opt out of getting their children vaccinated for either religious or personal reasons."
Children Not Driving Household Infections: Another study showing that children are unlikely to be the source of COVID-19 household outbreaks and are less likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 by another household member. The researchers analyzed 57 studies published from Dec 1, 2019, to Aug 24, 2020, describing household transmission clusters in 12 countries. They found only 8 of 213 transmission clusters (3.8%) with a child as the source of the infection.
Vaccine Conspiracy Theories: Something we'll need to pay attention to over the next several months. I like the concept of the "misinformation mouse" mentioned above.
One example of a viral video being shared.
Reuters with fact checks:
The Atlantic with "The Grim Conclusions of the Largest-Ever Study of Fake News"
"By every common metric, falsehood consistently dominates the truth on Twitter, the study finds: Fake news and false rumors reach more people, penetrate deeper into the social network, and spread much faster than accurate stories."
"A false story reaches 1,500 people six times quicker, on average, than a true story does."
"Fake news dominates according to both metrics. It consistently reaches a larger audience, and it tunnels much deeper into social networks than real news does. The authors found that accurate news wasn’t able to chain together more than 10 retweets. Fake news could put together a retweet chain 19 links long—and do it 10 times as fast as accurate news put together its measly 10 retweets."
STATE
California: California Assembly leaders press for all districts to resume in-school teaching in the spring. The three lead authors of AB 10 are Phil Ting, D-San Francisco, chair of the Assembly Budget Committee; Patrick O’Donnell, D-Long Beach, chair of the Assembly Education Committee, and Kevin McCarty, D-Sacramento, chair of the Assembly Budget Subcommittee on Education Finance.
DC: Universities, schools and daycare environments account for over 50% of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the district.
Florida: The Miami-Dade County Public Schools’ Ad Hoc Public Health and Medical Experts Task Force met this week.
"I feel that some of these students could be in danger, that they’re much safer in our schools," said school board member Dr. Lubby Navarro."
"Those of us in pediatrics, we are extremely concerned about the welfare of children and what school can offer them, especially in elementary age kids and children with special needs, and we’re starting to hear more and more of our colleagues around the nation recommend keeping the little ones in school," said Dr. Lisa Gwynn, a pediatrician."
"Expanding mental health services to children who have suffered during the pandemic was also discussed and is on the agenda, it seems, of every school board member who spoke up during today’s meeting."
Illinois: CTU files challenge to delay CPS reopening next month.
Michigan: Catholic families, schools file lawsuit challenging Michigan's extended COVID-19 restrictions
Ohio: Local superintendents disagree with Ohio Education Association on pivot to online education.
Virginia: Coronavirus safety teams have been established in Fairfax County, Virginia, to help public schools meet federal guidelines to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
INTERNATIONAL
UNICEF: Called on governments to prioritize the reopening of schools.
It claims the number of children facing school closures is soaring despite evidence that schools are not the main drivers of coronavirus infections.
“What we have learned about schooling during the time of COVID is clear: the benefits of keeping schools open, far outweigh the costs of closing them, and nationwide closures of schools should be avoided at all costs”, Robert Jenkins, UNICEF Global Chief of Education." More via the UN.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Business Outlook: The National Association for Business Economics released its latest outlook showing 73% of panelists believe that the economy will have returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels by the second half of 2021.
Hispanic Serving Institutes: CAP report arguing that HSIs need $1 billion in federal funding.
Work From Hawaii (WFH): Hawaii is running a Movers and Shakas program that will give people a free flight to work remotely from the islands.
UBI: San Francisco is considering a universal basic income project.
Delinquent Homeowners in Neighborhoods of Color Are Less Likely to Be Protected by Forbearance: Analysis from the Urban Institute.
Millions Behind in Rent: Moody’s Analytics shows about 12 million renters are now at least $5,850 behind in rent and utilities payments. "There's been as much as a 70% percent increase from last year in people paying rent on a credit card, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia." More from Heather Long at the Washington Post.
Pet Driven Recovery: Via Bloomberg. "The average cost of a dog in the U.K. was up 131% in the third quarter of 2020, compared with the year earlier." And believe it or not - pets have a stimulative effect. The average lifetime cost of a dog is $22,000. Bloomberg's thread here. Teddy is proud to do his part to stimulate the economy.
Childcare Providers: Black, Latino child care providers are disproportionately affected by COVID, with women of color making up 40% of its workforce.
Paid Leave / Childcare: AEI post on their survey of working-age adults between July 23 and August 7.
Workers from low-income households reported lower access to paid leave from their employers compared to those from higher-income households
Many workers from low-income households did not take leave due to an inability to afford a loss of income.
Unmet need for leave and childcare difficulties remain an issue for many working parents.
Almost 30 percent of working parents expressed an unmet need for leave since the pandemic started, compared to 16 percent of childless adults who expressed the same.
Among mothers of young children (0-5) who used childcare before the pandemic, only one in two were working full-time at the time of our survey compared to three-fourths before the pandemic started.
"The results of this survey show that a large unmet need for paid leave remains among low-income workers and working parents, while childcare challenges continue to affect the employment status of mothers negatively. Prioritizing these two groups with additional funding in future rounds of federal relief will address a critical gap in the efforts passed last spring."
RESOURCES
PoliFact: Posted their response to the question of "How safe is it for elementary schools to meet in person?" They don't give it a rating on their Truth-o-Meter but do say, "Public health experts told us that the best evidence seems to show that COVID-19 poses less danger to children. However, some children are vulnerable to the virus, and a growing body of research suggests that they can spread it to their peers and parents."
Mobilizing the Nation to Save the Students Hardest Hit by the Coronavirus Pandemic: Via Marc Tucker. Includes a call for large scale tutoring.
Which Party Will Get Its Act Together on Education First? Rotherham over at The 74:
"There are plenty of facts for plenty of theories about what a restless and divided American electorate wants. So, what, now, for schools?"
"In a Bellwether Education poll of 1,234 representative American adults in October, 42 percent overall, and 47 percent of women, said the pandemic had made them feel more favorable toward school choice (just 6 percent said it had made them less supportive)."
"The awkward problem for Democrats is that majorities of Black and Hispanic Americans support school choice options and are more likely than white progressives to do so."
"Besides, it’s an ironic political liability that at a time when the country, and in particular Democrats, are discussing structural inequality and racism in American life, ideas about giving poor parents choices or holding schools accountable for addressing racial disparities remain so controversial. Especially when a political formula of investing more in schools while reforming the system enjoys broad support from voters. Among Democrats, why should schooling be the one place giving the poor money and power is somehow a bad idea?"
It's Been A Difficult Year: We could all use a boost.
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