COVID-19 Policy Update #165
COVID-19 Policy Update
THURSDAY 12/10
TOP THREE
Children and Transmission: NatGeo with an article covering the results from an Icelandic study that provides "definitive evidence" of how much children contribute to coronavirus spread.
Researchers with the nation’s Directorate of Health and deCODE genetics, a human-genomic company in Reykjavik, monitored every adult and child in the country who was quarantined after potentially being exposed this spring, using contact tracing and genetic sequencing to trace links between various outbreak clusters.
This 40,000-person study found that children under 15 were about half as likely as adults to be infected, and only half as likely as adults to transmit the virus to others.
Almost all the coronavirus transmissions to children came from adults.
FDA: The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee met today to consider the emergency use authorization (EUA) request from Pfizer and BioNTech for the COVID vaccine for people above the age of 16.
After eight hours of presentation, the committee voted to recommend the EUA with17 Yes, 4 No, 1 abstention.
Important to note that many of the "no" votes were in response to concerns about including children ages 16-17 in the EUA.
Pfizer said it plans to start trials of its vaccine in 5-11 year olds in April 2021, after compiling data from trials in 12-15 year olds. Plans trials subsequently in kids under 5.
EUA safety monitoring plan, includes V-SAFE, new active surveillance system that's text based where vaccinated individuals can submit possible adverse effects & CDC reaches out to them for details.
STAT live bloged the day which is the best summary.
The committee meets again on December 17 to consider the EUA for Moderna's vaccine.
Education Insider: The Biden Regulatory Agenda: Whiteboard Advisors released the latest findings of their Education Insiders.
78% of Insiders expect the Biden administration to issue waivers and/or guidance to allow states to adjust their approved state assessment and accountability programs within the first six months.
56% expect the Biden administration to take action to allow forgiveness of some amount of federal student loans for qualifying individuals within the first six months. 25% believe student loan forgiveness will not happen at all.
FEDERAL
ED: Secretary DeVos on remote learning: "It is tragic to see what’s happening."
Transition:
Former NEA Chief Eskelsen Garcia is under scrutiny for comments about special-needs kids where she said “the chronically tarded and the medically annoying.” Video is here. AAPD statement here. Her apology here. Rotherham here.
Biden taps Susan Rice to head the White House Domestic Policy Council.
This was, to say the least, a surprise to many people given Ambassador Rice's experience is most in foreign policy, not domestic.
Her appointment will make the Deputy DPC Director even more important as well as the education Special Assistants to the President (SAPs).
Also interesting, Jen Paski highlighted that the nomination elevates important issues including poverty, healthcare, and income inequality. Not mentioned - education.
Sidenote: Ed reformers have been making the case for years that education is a national security issue and that "If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war." For me, I'm excited to see what she can do in the role. She understands how to navigate the West Wing, OMB, and interagency processes given her experience during the Obama admin. subject matter expertise can be filled with the Deputy and SAPs. And she may be able to reinvigorate a DPC that has struggled in recent years to garner the influence that NEC and NSC have.
House Hearing: The Logistics of Transporting a COVID-19 Vaccine. Summary by our partners at Mehlman Castagnetti. Fascinating to see how the carriers are handling the complicated logistics of distributing the vaccines.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
COVID: States reported 1.8 million tests, 210k cases, and a record 106,688 COVID-19 patients in US hospitals. There were 3,054 reported deaths today -- the highest single-day total to date.
IHME: Weekly briefing.
Impact on Preschoolers: A study in the UK found that preschool children’s eating, activity, and sleep routines were disrupted during the spring COVID-19 lockdown, which may be detrimental to child health and development.
How Kids’ Immune Systems Can Evade COVID: Nature covers what the latest research is suggesting as to why COVID is more mild with children.
Moderna: Began trials on adolescents aged 12 to 18.
Cyber Theft: Hackers steal Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine data in Europe.
COVID Data App: A Tucson assisted living center is the first in the country to pilot a COVID-19 app from the CDC, HHS, and United States Digital Service. Its goal is to help employers/companies streamline data collection instead of spending hours entering testing data to report to the health department. Look for this to be made available to schools soon. Learn more about SimpleReport here.
CDC Study on Parent Attitudes with School Reopenings: A study being published tomorrow where researchers used data from sing data from three CARAVAN omnibus surveys conducted during July 8–12, 2020, by ENGINE Insights. Survey participants included 858 parents.
56.5% of parents strongly or somewhat agreed that school should reopen this fall, compared with 62.3% of White parents, 46% of non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) parents and 50.2% of Hispanic parents.
Fewer White parents (62.5%) than Hispanic (79.5%,) and non-Hispanic parents of other racial/ethnic groups (66.9%) were supportive of a mask mandate for students and staff members.
Sidenote: It's a bit shocking that the CDC would publish something in December based on data in July about school reopenings in September. And it's a smaller sample compared to many other parents surveys conducted over the last 10 months.
Pandemic Depression: The study that tracked 200 elementary students in the UK before and after the lockdown and found a 70% chance that depression increased with isolation.
Forecasting Herd Immunity: Youyang Gu is a data scientist who created a COVID projections data model that has proven to be relatively accurate throughout the course of the pandemic He's now estimating the timeline for herd immunity here. Some highlights:
We believe COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US by late summer/early fall 2021 (Sep-Nov 2021).
At the time herd immunity is reached, roughly half of the immunity will be achieved via natural infection, and the other half will be achieved via vaccination.
Our current best estimate of when daily community transmissions will drop below 1,000 per day is summer 2021 (Jul-Sep 2021).
Our best estimate of a complete “return to normal” in the US is late summer 2021 (Aug-Oct 2021).
We estimate around 30% of the US population (~100 million) will have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus by the end of 2021. This translates to a final US COVID-19 death toll of roughly 500,000 (+/-100k) reported deaths
STATE
California:
Oakland Unified teachers push back on the district's reopening plan for in person learning.
Article: "The risk of getting coronavirus at Bay Area schools is low. So why is fear of returning still so high?"
Florida: Charter schools gained 4,854 students in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties, while traditional schools in those districts started the semester with 18,056 fewer students than last year. A shift of nearly 5,000 Tampa Bay area students to the charter sector could reduce the district's budget by $35 million.
New Hampshire: The state's Speaker died from COVID-19
Pennsylvania: Gov. Wolf announced new measures and restrictions as part of the state's effort to address COVID. Among the measures is pausing all sports at K-12 public schools, nonpublic schools, private schools and club, travel, recreational, intermural, and intramural sports. The governor also noted that data from the Department of Health notes that one-quarter of the cases of COVID among school-age children have occurred within the past two weeks.
INTERNATIONAL
UK:
The Office for National Statistics's (ONS) most recent data shows a reduction in all ages despite schools remaining open throughout, mirroring elsewhere in Europe.
Pupils in the poorest areas of the country are missing the most schooling.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Unemployment Claims: Rose last week to 853,000, the highest level since September.
City Finances: National League of Cities survey found a 21% drop in revenue, while extra expenses — for PPE, remote work technology and overtime pay — have risen 17%. One startling stat: 29% (6,000 cities, towns), did not receive any aid or funding from the CARES Act relief fund.
Adult Learners: CAP with three ways Congress can support adult learners during COVID.
"Get Ready for Another Roaring ’20s": UCLA forecast, which assumes mass vaccination of Americans will take place by summer, predicts that annualized growth in the nation’s gross domestic product will accelerate from a weak 1.2% in the current quarter to 1.8% in the first quarter of next year, then to a booming 6% in next year’s second quarter and consistent 3% growth each quarter thereafter into 2023.
Congress Needs to Understand State Tax Revenue Declines When Drafting COVID-19 Legislation: Helpful blog post from the Tax Policy Center.
The Economics of Christmas Trees: This was a fascinating read.
RESOURCES
College Enrollment for Low-Income High School Grads Plunged by 29% During the Pandemic: Via The 74.
Pandemic Parenting: The parental burnout crisis has reached a tipping point.
Digital Divide: Schools should look for long-term solutions to digital divide according to a new report.
Goals, Strategies, Tactics, People and Money: A Decade's Worth of Education Advocacy Insights: Great new report from 50CAN and FutureEd that uses exclusive data from 274 education advocacy campaigns at 50CAN to explore the connection between the inputs in campaign plans—goals, strategies, tactics, people and money—and the outcomes that advocates seek.
Light Show: A secret elf shared this video of Jamie Woodson's house who appears to have really embraced the holiday spirit.