COVID-19 Policy Update #173
Monday 1/2/2021
Hope you had a relaxing holiday and unplugged for a bit. It's been 13 days since the last update which is a lifetime in COVID time. The President threatened to veto the economic relief package only to then sign the bill. We have a new vaccine approved in the UK and also more concerning details on the new variant. California and Chicago released new details on their reopening plans. And we crossed into the new year with this.
Lots to catch up on tonight so mix yourself a French 75 and let's get to it.
TOP THREE
California: Gov. Newsom's new Safe Schools for All Plan calls for $2 billion in state funding incentives for schools that return to classrooms:
School districts would receive $450-$700 per student if they agreed to a timetable for reopening schools, testing students and staff, and developing a health and safety plan that teachers and employee unions would have to consent to.
The plan envisions first bringing students from preschool to Grade 2 back to campuses in February, along with students who are considered the most vulnerable and have special needs. Other grade levels would return on a phased schedule starting in March, with distance learning remaining an option for all families.
The plan also provides for improved coordination between school and health officials for contact tracing.
Naomi Bardach, a pediatrician and school-safety specialist, was named to lead the Safe Schools for All Team, a cross-agency group to help schools with reopening plans.
Schools in counties with a seven-day average of fewer than 28 cases per 100,000 residents would be eligible to open.
A state dashboard will enable all Californians to see their school's reopening status, level of available funding, and data on in-school transmissions.
The state is offering districts a discounted rate of less than $55 per COVID test through the new testing lab in Valencia, which the state built in partnership with the diagnostics company PerkinElmer.
Tatia Davenport, CEO of the California Association School Business Officers or CASBO, said that creating the infrastructure for administering student testing would be an ambitious and expensive logistical challenge that school districts had not anticipated, and might deter some districts from joining the program. “There was no meaningful dialogue(with the school districts) on what testing would require before the plan was released”
Chicago: Chicago Archdiocese Study suggests schools can reopen safely:
"Data from the nation's largest Catholic school system reveals that implementation of layered mitigation efforts can support the goal of reopening in-person education in a safe but not zero-risk environment,” said Marielle Fricchione, MD of the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH).
The city placed no limitations on reopening of private schools, as long as strict mitigation measures were followed. Schools that reopened were required to promptly report all suspected or confirmed school-related COVID-19 cases.
The researchers analyzed data for the first seven weeks of the 2020-21 school year: a time of moderate to high COVID-19 incidence. During that time, the Archdiocese reported a total of 59 COVID-19 cases at 31 Archdiocese schools. Forty-nine cases were classified as “school-associated” by CDPH: 35 in students and 14 in staff.
The estimated COVID attack rate among students at Archdiocese schools was 0.2 percent – significantly lower than the 0.4 percent rate for all Chicago children. For school staff, the estimated attack rate was 0.5 percent, compared to 0.7 percent for working-age adults in Chicago.
Does In Person School Contribute to Spread of COVID? New study from a team of researchers from the Center for Education Data and Research (CEDR), the National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER), and the Education Policy Innovation Collaboration (EPIC) linked county-level data on COVID-19 infections in Michigan and Washington with the modality of instruction offered by school districts - online, hybrid, or in-person. They concluded that in-person schooling in low and medium community spread areas does not contribute to community spread; in-person schooling in high community spread areas does contribute to increased community spread.
FEDERAL
CDC: Released new resources for schools:
COVID-19 Mitigation Toolkit. To help schools plan for in-person instruction and ongoing operations during COVID-19
Get Ready for In-Person Learning: Conduct a 5-step walkthrough with health officials to review planned COVID-19 mitigation strategies
How Do I Set Up My Classroom?: To help teachers and staff modify the layout of their classroom in a way that promotes healthy behaviors, environments, and operations that reduce the risk of COVID-19
Teachers and Staff Resuming In-Person Learning Tool: Checklists to help teachers and staff prepare themselves, their families, their students, and their classrooms for in-person learning.
Fauci: Said it’s possible that COVID-19 vaccines will become mandatory in order to attend school.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Astra/Oxford COVID Vaccine: On Dec 30, Britain became the first country to approve the coronavirus vaccine developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca,
B.1.1.7: The new variant of the coronavirus.
It appears to have originated in the UK as early as the late summer. Has been found in CA, CO, and FL.
An Imperial College London study found it is between 50-70% more transmissible than the current variant. They also determined a small but statistically significant shift towards people under the age of 20s being more affected by the new variant than the previous one.
Muge Cevik has a technical but good thread on all of what we know.
Professor Sir Mark Walport, member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said "We know that a person between 12 and 16 is seven times more likely than others in a household to bring the infection into a household."
Zeynep Tufekci explains why this new variant might be a ticking time bomb.
"A more transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a potential catastrophe in and of itself. If anything, given the stage in the pandemic we are at, a more transmissible variant is in some ways much more dangerous than a more severe variant. That’s because higher transmissibility subjects us to a more contagious virus spreading with exponential growth, whereas the risk from increased severity would have increased in a linear manner, affecting only those infected."
"Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time—especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States. The short-term implications of all this are significant, and worthy of attention, even as we await more clarity from data. In fact, we should act quickly especially as we await more clarity—lack of data and the threat of even faster exponential growth argue for more urgency of action."
"If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month"
COVID Numbers: Yesterday, states reported 1.4 million tests, 205,000 cases, 125,544 people hospitalized, and 1,431 COVID-19 deaths.
Vaccine Hesitancy: Some healthcare workers refuse to take the COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access.
"So many frontline workers in Riverside County have refused the vaccine — an estimated 50% — that hospital and public officials met to strategize how best to distribute the unused doses, Public Health Director Kim Saruwatari said."
"A recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 29% of healthcare workers were “vaccine hesitant,” a figure slightly higher than the percentage of the general population, 27%."
"In Fresno County, interim Public Health Officer Dr. Rais Vohra said Tuesday that some “people who are qualified to get the vaccine are not ready to get it.” Such healthcare workers, including those who are pregnant or want to become pregnant, have been hesitant as questions about the long-term effects arise."
STATE
Arizona: Superintendent Hoffman urged Gov. Ducey to order schools to remain in distance learning after break.
California: Catholic schools struggling to serve low-income students during COVID. "A majority of the elementary school students come from low-income families who receive scholarships to pay for tuition that generally ranges from $3,000 to $5,000 a year." “It’s a little scary. We have some families attending that have absolutely no income.”
Colorado: Cherry Creek Schools got their coronavirus vaccines on Friday.
Connecticut: The Connecticut Education Association is urging schools in the state to move to an all-remote learning format through mid-January amid a rise in COVID-19 cases.
DC: Washington Post with a long but must read piece: "How D.C. and its teachers, with shifting plans and demands, failed to reopen schools"
The city kept changing its plan, and the union kept changing its demands. A lack of trust on both sides fueled failure at every turn.
"The school system had proof that children were falling behind because of remote learning but sowed doubt in the findings by presenting inaccurate data. Principals had no input in shaping the reopening plan and were left in the dark about its details."
"At least twice, the Washington Teachers’ Union reached tentative agreements with the city to reopen, only to back out a few days later. The union staked out demands that went far beyond what was in place elsewhere and beyond guidelines set by its national union.
"Even as restaurants and salons opened to customers, as private and charter schools began in-person classes and available data show scant virus infection in the nation’s open schools, the traditional public school system has remained entirely virtual, with a few hundred elementary school students participating in virtual learning from classrooms under the supervision of nonteaching staff."
“The lack of concrete and specific information absolutely made families lose confidence,” said Judith Sandalow, executive director of Children’s Law Center, an organization that represents D.C. children from low-income households. “They didn’t have thoughtful answers to really legitimate questions that parents were asking.”
"The Public Employee Relations Board delivered the city a debilitating blow. The union had filed a formal complaint over the teacher surveys, and the board concluded the city could not use the results. The board said the city was obligated to work through the union, not communicate with teachers on its own. Without the survey, the chancellor had no way of assigning teachers and staff."
"In the end, 39 percent of all city teachers called in sick. An hour after the school day began, Ferebee emailed the community saying the District was abandoning its reopening plan."
Illinois: CPS released new details and schedule for resuming in-person instruction
Chicago Physicians weigh in: "As medical doctors, we believe reopening Chicago’s schools is essential and safe"
32 aldermen 'deeply concerned' with CPS' reopening plans.
Defying CPS, some Chicago Teachers Union members won't return to schools today.
"The CTU has not identified any area where the district’s plan falls short of public health guidelines and the CTU’s last-minute tactics are deeply disrespectful to the 77,000 mostly Black and Latinx families who selected in-person learning,” said CPS spokeswoman Emily Bolton. “It is the district’s expectation that teachers without an accommodation report to work tomorrow, just as principals, custodial staff, engineers, and food service staff have throughout the entirety of the pandemic.”
Only 31% of Latinx families surveyed by the district said they would send their children back to school. But Spanish-speaking CPS families and their teachers told Borderless Magazine that they have not received enough support with technology during the pandemic. Immigrant Hispanic parents and grandparents expressed their frustrations with navigating computers not in Spanish and relying on older children and teachers for tech support.
Michigan:
25% of Jenison High School students in virtual learning are failing at least one class.
More than 50,000 students left Michigan public schools this year.
New Jersey: The state teachers union called for all children to get COVID-19 tests before returning to school this month.
Ohio: Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost filed an amicus brief in support of three Christian Schools and Citizens for Community Values’ (CCV) lawsuit to overturn a Toldeo-Lucas county Health Department order shuttering all in-person education for students in grades 7-12.
INTERNATIONAL
UK:
Boris Johnson insists schools are safe and children should attend - but more restrictions may come.
The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) said children's wards are not seeing any "significant pressure" from Covid-19.
Teachers ‘scared’ and ‘frustrated’ as schools are told to reopen
The rates of infection in children (0-19 in this graph) are rising, and higher than in the first wave.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
State Revenues: A net decline in state general fund spending in fiscal 2021 is projected for the first time since the Great Recession as a result of revenue reductions, according to a survey released by the National Association of State Budget Officers. Fourteen states reported K-12 general fund spending decreases compared with the prior year, while 26 states reported increases for fiscal 2021.
Bankruptcies: The list of U.S. companies that blamed COVID-19 for helping to push them into bankruptcy has grown to more than 340.
A Nation’s Economy Divided: Breadlines vs. Bread Makers: Bloomberg with some powerful stories of how Americans are coping with the economic turmoil.
Deaths of Despair: NBER paper:
"The flow of non-COVID excess deaths (NCEDs) increased steadily from March to June and then plateaued. They were disproportionately experienced by working aged men, including men as young as aged 15 to 24."
"If deaths of despair were the only causes of death with significant net contributions to NCEDs after February, 30,000 NCEDs would represent at least a 45 percent increase in deaths of despair from 2018, which itself was high by historical standards."
The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates: NBER paper:
"We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race/gender, resulting in a 3.0% increase in mortality rate and a 0.5% drop in life expectancy over the next 15 years for the overall American population."
"We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while white men might suffer large consequences over longer horizons."
"These figures translate in a staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years."
5 Ways States Can Put Americans Back to Work and Transform Higher Education: Via JFF:
Provide people with the in-demand skills they need to get a job and advance their careers.
Ensure that learning is accessible anywhere and at any time.
Remove financial hurdles to college enrollment and completion.
Help people earn while they learn.
Strengthen on-ramps to college.
This Is Peak DC 2020: Books by the Foot curates shelves full of books for Washington offices, hotels, TV sets—and, now, Zoom backdrops.
LEARNING PODS
Learning Pods Show Their Cracks: Via NYT - organizing and operating an independent one-room schoolhouse from your backyard is a lot of work.
Equity Hubs: Give families struggling financially support with pandemic pods. “This is an effort for equity for people who can’t afford to hire a teacher or do the things that other parts of the county can do,” said Byron Johns, co-founder of the Black and Brown Coalition for Educational Equity and Excellence.
RESOURCES
Study Measuring School Closure Impact on Children: New NBER paper that found the switch to virtual learning, peer influences, and parental responses all contribute to growing educational inequality during the pandemic:
"A general point about the impact on children’s education is that the impacts are hard to undo and can have lifelong consequences for children’s future prospects. Unlike a business that can be compensated for pandemic-induced losses, there is no magic trick for making up learning losses incurred during the crisis."
"Empirical evidence suggests that learning losses, once accrued, are difficult to fully offset later on, suggesting that the current crisis will affect the economic opportunities of today’s children for decades to come."
"The main conclusion from our analysis is that each of the channels we consider contributes to higher educational inequality. Children from poorer families do relatively worse with virtual compared to regular schooling; they are less likely to benefit from positive peer spillovers during the crisis; and their parents are less likely to work from home and hence less likely to be able to provide them with maximum support for virtual schooling. The end result is that learning gaps grow during the pandemic. Our model also predicts that wider achievement gaps will persist until children finish high school, suggesting that children’s longterm prospects are at risk"
Key to Preventing Children’s Learning Loss: Britain’s Office for Standards in Education, Children’s Services and Skills released a new study from the UK which showed that the students who suffered most weren’t necessarily economically disadvantaged, but rather those who had poor support structures. Children who spent less time with parents and other kids showed the biggest declines in academic learning and social development. More at The 74.
Axios: 1 big thing: Teachers fear for lives as schools gear up
2020: The Year Of the Edtech Paradox: Good reflections from Imaginable Futures' Isabelle Hau.
To Win Post-Pandemic, EdTech Needs to Start Thinking Big: Via TechCrunch
"If nothing else is clear after a tumultuous remote learning experience, it’s that the world needs effective and accessible technology that allows education to scale with learning for all in mind."
"In the past few months, Zovio launched Signalz, a tool that helps universities track student engagement and see who is most at risk for dropping out of courses. Piazza also launched a tool focused on college and high school student participation that allows instructors to send personalized messages and measure activity on their assignments. There’s also Rhithm, an app that allows educators to check in daily with students for emotional-learning insights, and Edsights, a chatbot for undergraduate students."
“Anyone can pitch an idea about how we should do math curriculum,” said Ashley Bittner, co-founding partner of Firework Ventures, . “But there’s a reason behind why we teach kids to do it this way. I don’t think there’s enough respect for the experience learning science behind products.”
"Jomayra Herrera, an investor at Cowboy Ventures who backs the future of work and education businesses, says some businesses — such as a reskilling program for a population that needs significant support — doesn’t scale and nor should it. In other words, if the incentives are for a company to grow as fast as possible and as cheaply as possible, it might not make sense when it comes to something as emotional and raw as education."
"PitchBook data shows that edtech startups around the world have raised $10.76 billion in venture capital in 2020, compared to $4.7 billion in 2019. While reporting delays could shift this total, venture capital dollars have more than doubled in just one year. Edtech startups in the United States raised $1.78 billion in venture capital this year across 265 deals. The dollar value is up from 2019, which brought in $1.32 billion."
Have We Learned Nothing From Nearly Every Robot Movie??? This never ends well. Although, it's weirdly fascinating and terrifying to watch this.