COVID-19 Policy Update #186
COVID-19 Policy Update
TUESDAY 1/26
TOP THREE
Two Studies on School Reopenings:
CDC researchers published a paper that evaluated a number of studies and data from autumn of 2020.
The researchers concluded, “As many schools have reopened for in-person instruction in some parts of the US as well as internationally, school-related cases of COVID-19 have been reported, but there has been little evidence that schools have contributed meaningfully to increased community transmission.”
The paper noted the importance of mitigation measures, such as everyone wearing masks, distancing, improving ventilation in the room, and regular testing.
More via NYT, The Hill, Washington Post
Public Health England (PHE) found transmission of COVID-19 in primary schools was “extremely low” and outbreaks were rare during the autumn.
"There is also very little evidence students or staff are spreading the virus asymptomatically within primaries.”
Biden Is Vowing to Reopen Schools Quickly. It Won’t Be Easy: Via NYT:
"Given the seemingly intractable health and labor challenges, some district officials have begun to say out loud what was previously unthinkable: that schools may not be operating normally for the 2021-22 school year."
“We don’t know whether a vaccine stops transmissibility,” said Randi Weingarten"
Nate Silver has questions...
Discussion With Fauci: The COVID Collaborative is hosting an invite only webinar on February 9 from 12:00 - 1:00 pm EST.
Dr. Fauci will have a conversation with the co-chairs of the COVID Collaborative, former Governors Deval Patrick (D-MA) and Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID).
This will be one of Dr. Fauci’s first appearances as the Chief Medical Advisor to President Biden, and he will answer questions about how the new administration is approaching the crisis.
After the initial discussion, there will be a moderated Q&A during which time you can ask Dr. Fauci questions through the chat function.
FEDERAL
COVID Economic Relief Package
CNBC reports that the Biden Administration has signaled an openness to more narrowly targeting the direct cash benefit proposal.
Speaking of direct cash benefits - a new Opportunity Insights paper that finds
Families earning under about $75,000 spend the $600 economic impact payments more quickly. Families above that income level are more likely to save the funds. More via Healther Long at the Washington Post:
“Targeting the stimulus payments to lower-income households would both better support the households most in need and provide a large boost to the economy in the short-run,” said John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and co-director of Opportunity Insights. “These checks are really impactful for lower-income households.”
Side Note: This raises an important policy design question. A stimulus design wants individuals to quickly go out and spend the funds at stores, restaurants, etc. A relief-orientation wants people to generally do the opposite - not go out to the store, but stay at home during shelter-in-place orders and use the funds on basic necessities like rent, food, etc. This latter approach would be more comfortable with savings...
Executive Orders:
President Biden signed four executive orders on racial equity
Memorandum on Redressing Our Nation’s and the Federal Government’s History of Discriminatory Housing Practices and Policies
Executive Order on Reforming Our Incarceration System to Eliminate the Use of Privately Operated Criminal Detention Facilities
Memorandum on Tribal Consultation and Strengthening Nation-to-Nation Relationships
Memorandum Condemning and Combating Racism, Xenophobia, and Intolerance Against Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in the United States
IES: WWC Rapid Evidence Review of Distance Learning Programs Report. Also searchable database of the 37 studies.
ED: NPR interview with Miguel Cardona
"Cardona also made clear he does not see it as the education secretary's job — or even within the secretary's authority — to force school districts to adopt these science-based strategies, including requiring teachers and students to wear masks."
"The department's role "is really to support states who are working to develop policies... to safely reopen schools," Cardona said.
"It's really our responsibility to identify what those gaps are, how they've been exacerbated [by the pandemic], and how we can better utilize the resources to target them and help support our learners in greatest need."
COVID-19 RESEARCH
The Impact of the Non-essential Business Closure Policy on COVID-19 Infection Rates: NBER paper which estimates "that workers designated as essential have a 55% higher likelihood of being positive for Covid-19 than those classified as non-essential; in other words, non-essential workers experience a protective effect."
The U.S. Needs to Ramp Up Vaccinations to Reach Herd Immunity: The Kaiser Family Foundation's Drew Altman:
The U.S. would need to administer 2.4 million doses per day in order to vaccinate 70% of the population by July 4.
To get there by Labor Day would require 1.9 million doses per day.
To reach herd immunity by Jan. 1, 2022, we’d need 1.2 million doses per day.
Chick-Fil-A: A manager jumped in to help improve a drive-thru vaccine site, taking the wait time from an hour to 15 mins.
Powerful Visual: Of why the exponential growth of the new variants worries policymakers:
"Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told people to imagine sitting in the top row of Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium, a soccer arena with a capacity of 38,000 people. A dripping tap is filling it up, one drop the first minute, two drops the second, four drops the third. At that rate, Frederiksen said, the park will be filled in 44 minutes. But it will seem almost empty for the first 42 minutes."
STATE
Colorado: Gov. Polis announced $27 million in RISE grants to 17 organizations that will support career training, literacy programs, Indigenous curriculum
Illinois: Chicago Sun Times: "Biden signals support for CTU’s COVID-19 safety concerns as top union chief briefs White House"
"The president added, “we should be able to open up every, every school, kindergarten through eighth grade, if in fact we administer these tests, and we’ll have the added advantage I might add, a putting millions of people back to work.”
"Weingarten said she briefed Biden senior staffers on “what was going on in Chicago, from my perspective,” and was “very pleased” with his remarks on Monday."
CNN's Jake Tapper weighed in "President Biden has yet to acknowledge the reality that some of these disputes are health officials saying schools should be re-opened and teachers unions saying no way, and the needle cannot be threaded."
Kentucky: The Masks for Kids initiative is a partnership between Louisville Metro Government, University of Louisville School of Medicine, Jefferson County Public Schools, Christopher 2X Game Changers and YMCA of Greater Louisville to raise money to purchase masks for children.
Maryland: State education officials are trying to determine the best ways for school districts to address learning loss.
"Williamson also brought up the concept of establishing “Acceleration Academies,” with 12 students, led by teachers outside normal school hours, providing 25 hours of focused learning.
Virginia: The Fairfax Education Association set their reopening criteria to include 14 days of no community spread and staff and students having vaccinations. That likely means no reopening until late 2021 or even 2022 given that vaccine trials with children have just started.
INTERNATIONAL
France: About 12% of teachers went on strike seeking better virus protections at their schools.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Parents of Remote Learners Less Likely to Work Full-Time: Parents of school-age children who are spending part or all of their time taking classes from home are less likely to work full-time,
77% of parents with children who are learning entirely remotely or are in hybrid situations because of the coronavirus pandemic are working full-time, compared with 71% of parents whose children are physically back in school buildings.
About 24% of parents whose children are attending school virtually aren’t working at all compared with 15% of parents whose children are attending school in person every day, according to the survey
Working Parents: Are saying it's becoming more difficult to balance work with childcare responsibilities created by COVID.
What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States? New NBER paper:
"Summaries range from “it is now well-established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.”
"We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s."
"Our key conclusions are: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults as well as the less-educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly-affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low-wage industries is less one-sided."
RESOURCES
OSHA Complaints: "A KHN analysis of federal and state Occupational Safety and Health Administration data found more than 780 covid-related complaints covering more than 2,000 public and private K-12 schools."
This Is the Moment for States to Design the Future of Education: OpEd by John Baker and Richard Culatta.
Schools Were Set to Reopen. Then the Teachers’ Union Stepped In: Via NYT "Students didn’t return to elementary schools in Montclair, N.J., as planned after a tense week of debate and a boycott of prep sessions by some educators."
What the New Variants Mean for Education: Robin Lake "With New COVID-19 Variant, Reopening Schools in Next 100 Days May Not Be Possible. We Must Plan Accordingly, Not Put Our Heads in the Sand"
Has the Public Turned on Teachers?: EdWeek with a long piece.
Talent Is Everywhere, Opportunity Is Not: It's from last year, but I still love this American Idol audition of a garbage man.