COVID-19 Policy Update #188
COVID-19 Policy Update
THURSDAY 1/28
TOP THREE
School Reopenings Are Biden’s First Big Test: OpEd from Michael Bloomberg:
"There’s little risk of coronavirus transmission in classrooms. There’s immense risk for students stuck at home."
"That should send a clear message to governors, mayors and teachers’ union leaders: It’s time to open the schools."
"Biden is offering an additional $130 billion, and has rightly pledged sweeping federal support for schools that need it. But he should be clear that this is a two-way street. The government will do everything it can to ensure classrooms are safe; in return, school districts must prioritize getting kids back at their desks."
"His statement on Monday about the Chicago dispute — “The teachers I know, they want to work” — hit the right note. If such efforts fail, he should consider working with Congress to condition future aid on whether districts in low-risk areas are willing to open their doors."
CDC: Recommends that schools be the last to close and the first to reopen.
South African Variant: Discovered in two cases in South Carolina. Neither of the people infected has traveled recently. Stat News has more.
FEDERAL
White House Actions: Memorandum on Restoring Trust in Government Through Scientific Integrity and Evidence-Based Policymaking
COVID Package:
Speaker Pelosi said the House might pass a budget resolution next week which would be the first step in setting up the reconciliation process to advance President Biden's package.
There were some reports earlier today that they might split up the package, but the White House nixed the idea this afternoon.
OpEd by Alan Blinder and Glenn Hubbard: Here are the keys to compromise on a relief deal.
"First, delay can be deadly. This is a national emergency and must be treated as such. That means agreeing on a big relief package quickly."
"Second, aid should be targeted to the greatest needs. That means fighting the pandemic with vaccines, gloves, masks and help for opening schools safely."
"Turning to economic assistance, the greatest needs are obvious: income for the poor and unemployed, food for the hungry, help for small businesses struggling to survive, and aid to states and cities and towns trying to maintain essential services."
"Third, pandemic relief programs should be designed to phase out as the economy improves, not on set dates."
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Vaccines: Novavax's vaccine proved nearly 90% effective in preliminary results, but only 49% effective with the South African variant.
Early Warnings on Twitter: New study that found an increase in tweets mentioning the keyword "pneumonia" in most of the European countries as early as January 2020. Their findings suggest social media could be an early warning of potential outbreaks.
STATE
California:
Negotiations for reopening continue to meet objections of school districts, alternative ideas are emerging.
LA County elementary schools could reopen in 2 to 3 weeks if COVID-19 rates continue to drop.
DC: Began vaccinating teachers this week.
Illinois: As Chicago Public Schools officials debate with the Chicago Teachers Union the role of vaccines in reopening schools, teachers at a North Side private school and some suburban districts are lining up for their shots this week.
South Carolina: Some high school teachers and staff accidentally given COVID-19 vaccine
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
GDP:
US growth declined -3.5%; the worst since 1946.
Q4 2020 GDP was $18.8 trillion, below $18.3 trillion in Q4 2019.
The US economy grew at a 4.0% pace (below expectations)
Jason Furman argues there is a bright spot: "disposable personal income (which subtracts taxes paid and adds government benefits received), experienced the fastest annual growth since 1984, fueled by supplements to unemployment insurance, stimulus checks, and support for small businesses."
First Look at the 2018 Employment and Educational Experiences of 2007–08 College Graduates: IES report. Some highlights:
63% of owned a home
86% had a retirement account
20% reported a negative net worth
14% reported they did not meet essential expenses, such as mortgage or rent payments, utility bills, or important medical care, in the past 12 months.
Average monthly loan payment was $393 (public institution), $469 (private nonprofit institution), and $485 (private for-profit institution).
Median earnings varied with those in engineering fields ($93,000) earning about twice the median annualized salary of those in business support and administrative assistance fields ($46,000).
SNAP Benefits: CBPP analysis of Biden's SNAP proposal.
Marshall Plan for Moms: Launched by Girls Who Code CEO Reshma Saujani. Calls on the Biden Administration to launch a taskforce to create a plan; provide mothers with a short-term cash benefit; and paid leave and affordable childcare.
Apprenticeships: Post from Brookings on how apprenticeships are a solution for creating more access to quality jobs.
Can Community Colleges Be a Post-COVID Engine of Economic Recovery? Good piece from Tamar Jacoby
The Great Unbundling: Fascinating deck from Benedict Evans on tech, innovation, and how COVID is accelerating automation and unbundling.
RESOURCES
COVID Is Making the Case for More School Choice: OpEd from Ramesh Ponnuru
"But what else did we think the teachers unions would do? They have a better reputation than other unions because most people value teachers and what they do for kids. Most of us know a teacher who is overworked and underappreciated. But the unions themselves don’t exist to pursue the interests of children, or the common good. Their job is to represent their members."
"The unions’ current focus on what appears to be a minuscule risk to the safety of their members may be unreasonable. But looking after their safety is one of their leaders’ core responsibilities. Making sure children learn isn’t. That’s not an opinion about their character; it’s a fact about their incentives."
"The fundamental argument for school choice has always been that it would give more power to parents. It’s an argument that the schools’ response to Covid has strengthened. In the context of the education system our society maintains and puts up with, the teachers unions are behaving rationally. It's the rest of us who aren't."
The State of K-12 Funding – Is There Enough?: Interesting analysis from Tyton Partners.
"Today, if we had no funding from federal stimulus to-date, we estimate there would have been a state budget decline of 5% (-$17B) in FY21 and 13% (-$44B) in FY22."
"Our analysis indicates total K-12 funding would have declined by ~$4 billion in FY21 and ~$27 billion in FY22 – the equivalent of more than $500 per student."
"However, without additional funding, these two relief packages will not be enough to keep FY22 funding at similar levels as FY21. We project there could be another steep “cliff” – this time more than $30 billion – should there fail to be additional relief."
The Whole Truth About Kids, School, and COVID-19: From the Atlantic's Derek Thompson
"We’ve known for months that young children are less susceptible to serious infection and less likely to transmit the coronavirus. Let’s act like it."
“Back in August and September, we did not have a lot of data” to make a recommendation on schools, Margaret Honein, a member of the CDC’s COVID-19 team, told The New York Times. Okay, but September was 100 days, 15 weeks, and several dozen remote-learning school days ago! Meanwhile, anybody paying attention has long figured out that children are probably less likely to transmit the disease to teachers and peers. This is no longer a statistical secret lurking in the appendix of one esoteric paper. It has been the repeatedly replicated conclusion of a waterfall of research, from around the world, over the past six months."
That plan would look something like this.
Reopen the lower schools. Start with day cares and elementary schools, given their reduced transmission risk.
Enforce COVID-19 protocols both within schools and throughout the community.
Accelerate vaccination procurement and distribution.
Distribute high-quality scientific information.
"Public communication about this disease has been horrendous, and the Trump White House was a fount of nonsense. Meanwhile, some journalists and professionals, in an attempt to fight back against Trump’s disinformation, leaned too heavily into COVID pessimism and clung to outdated fears about secondary spread among young kids. That’s made a lot of people unnecessarily concerned that kids are silent vectors for this disease, and made teachers feel like they were being thrown to the wolves in a country that has failed in just about every pandemic test."
President Biden's Granddaughter: Has a clever suggestion for teaching spelling. Could also work for math problems.
The Rudest States: YouGov asked more than 77,000 people whether they think the people in their state tend to be more rude or more polite than most Americans. Rhode Island was the rudest. And residents in Hawaii consider themselves the nicest. I'm too polite to comment on this.