COVID-19 Policy Update #200
COVID-19 Policy Update
TUESDAY 2/16
A warning with an accompanying apology up front: tonight's update is much, much longer than usual. Not only was it a three day weekend, but there were a lot of reactions to the updated CDC guidance and it seems there is a surge of activity among states launching academic recovery initiatives. We also have three new studies on schools/children and COVID plus vaccine trials started with children 6-12. That said, I can't recall another Update with such important material in it or such a troubling portrait of the struggles children are enduring.
What to pair with such an update? Given that it was President's Day, we turn to Thomas Jefferson who visited several vineyards in Bordeaux while serving as Ambassador to France. He apparently enjoyed Saint Emilion’s Chateau Canon and the celebrated Château Haut-Brion of which he purchased 24 cases. Pour yourself a glass and let's dig in.
TOP THREE
CDC School Guidance: A lot of reactions over the weekend:
Transcript and audio from Friday's press briefing on the updated school guidance.
Must watch interview of CDC Director Walensky by Jake Tapper.
Dr. Emily Oster: "Fully Opening Schools Is Urgent. Here’s How to Do It."
Joseph Allen and Helen Jenkins in the Washington Post: "The CDC’s latest demands will keep millions of kids out of school unnecessarily."
CDC Director Walensky and Dr. Fauci are taking heat for appearing on the Sunday shows talking about guidance that says it is safe to reopen schools but then also saying Congress needs to pass the ARA to safely reopen schools.
Via Washington Post: CDC Defends School Guidelines as Advocates Say They Make It Too Hard to Reopen
Burbio ran the new CDC thresholds through their data and found 91% of students live in “Red” zones.
"I’m An Epidemiologist and a Father." Must read OpEd: "Here’s why I’m losing patience with our teachers’ unions."
"I am a father of three girls, ages 11, 13, and 17, all of whom go to public school. I am also an infectious diseases physician and epidemiologist."
"Unfortunately, our panel’s expertise — and that of national and international health groups — has been frequently dismissed by the local educators’ union in favor of their own judgments about best health practices and the safety of in-person learning."
"These litmus tests are not based on science, they are grounded in anxiety, and they are a major component of the return-to-school quagmire in which we are stuck."
"In settings like school, where everyone is wearing a face covering, there really is no measurable difference in risk between being 3 feet and 6 feet apart. That is why there is no official guidance from any relevant public health body that mandates 6-foot distancing at all times."
"Researchers in North Carolina published results from 11 school districts and more than 100,000 students and staff. Schools in those districts employed mandatory masking and 6-foot distancing where feasible, but no major capital improvement to HVAC systems or buildings. In the first quarter of this school year, they found the rate of transmission of Covid-19 in schools was dramatically lower (roughly 1/25) than the level of transmission in the community. Among all of the Covid-19 infections observed in schools, the state health department’s tracers found 96 percent were acquired in the community, and there were no documented cases of the virus passing from child to adult in schools — zero."
Kids Under Pressure: Study by NBC News and Challenge Success is one of the first to shed light on differences between students who are online-only and those in classrooms. Article here.
In Fall 2020, 32% of students report mental health as a major source of stress versus 26% pre-pandemic.
67% of female students report that college related worries have increased compared to only 50% of male students.
50% of students say the strength of their relationships with teachers has decreased.
59% report teachers check in to ask how they are doing at least once a week. But these check-ins are rarely happening on an individual basis. 58% say that they never meet in real time individually. 41% say they never have a teacher or other school staff member ask how they are doing.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
IHME: Weekly briefing
Model projects 615,000 cumulative deaths on June 1. This represents 152,000 additional deaths from February 8 to June 1.
Daily reported cases in the last week decreased to 117,900 per day on average, dropping nearly 50% from early January
Daily deaths in the last week decreased to 2,820 per day on average compared to 3,080 the week before. COVID-19 remains the number 1 cause of death in the US this week
School Reopenings Not Likely to Lead to Wider Spread: Study from the University of Warwick showing children going to school in November did not lead to wider outbreaks of the virus.
Covid cases among teachers fell during the November lockdown even though schools remained open.
Lead researcher Dr Mike Tildesley, said: “Our analysis of recorded school absences as a result of infection with Covid-19 suggests that the risk is much lower in primary than secondary schools and we do not find evidence to suggest that school attendance is a significant driver of outbreaks in the community.”
"When schools reopen it can increase mixing in other settings because parents are more likely to be able to go into the workplace and so forth. I think when any such school reopening policy happens we need to think very carefully about making sure that we can keep our mixing as low as possible in other aspects of society so that we can have schools reopen safely."
Open Schools With No Masks Doubles Teachers Risk: New study that found keeping schools open without masks or quarantines doubled Swedish teachers’ COVID-19 risk. More at Science.
"We find that exposure to open schools resulted in a small increase in infections among parents. Among teachers, the infection rate doubled, and infections spilled over to their partners. This suggests that keeping lower-secondary schools open had a minor impact on the overall spread of SARS-CoV-2 in society. However, teachers are affected, and measures to protect them could be considered."
The Experience of Two Independent Schools with In-Person Learning During the COVID19 Pandemic: New study reporting on the experience of two large independent K-12 schools that implemented an array of SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies that included periodic universal testing.
School-A identified 112 cases in 2,320 students and staff; SchoolB identified 25 cases (2.0%) in 1,200 students and staff.
"Of 69 traceable introductions, 63 (91%) were not associated with school-based transmission, 59 cases (54%) occurred in the 2 weeks post-Thanksgiving. In most cases, clear noncompliance with mitigation protocols was found. The largest outbreak had 28 identified cases and was traced to an off-campus party."
Conclusion: "Although school-age children can contract and transmit SARS-CoV-2, rates of COVID19 infection related to in-person education were significantly lower than those in the surrounding."
Children Vaccine Trials: Oxford-AstraZeneca begins testing its coronavirus vaccine in children as young as 6
AstraZeneca: South Korea is revoking approval for the vaccine for people over the age of 65 until further test results are carried out.
Vaccine Distribution:
Walmart’s vaccine rollout heads to small towns. "Roughly 5,000 U.S. stores under the company’s Walmart and Sam’s Club banners, about 4,000 are located in what the federal government defines as medically underserved areas."
NGA's Executive Committee letter to President Biden on vaccine distribution.
STATE
Arizona:
Governor Ducey signed an Executive Order directing the State Board of Education to identify the learning loss that occurred during the pandemic.
AZ DOT reported "I-10 EB near Benson: Right lane restricted by what appears to be numerous boxes of potato chips. Bring the dip."
California:
CORE Districts analyzed fall NWEA and Renaissance data finding:
Via The 74: "Fifth graders in the California sample of 50,000 students, for example, lost roughly two points on NWEA’s Measures of Academic Progress, or MAP, assessment in reading and math, while in a typical year, they would have gained 10 points. On the Renaissance STAR assessment, sixth graders lost almost 30 points in reading compared to normal progress, a gain of about five points."
Study results here.
San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo "founded a 501(c)4 advocacy organization called Solutions San Jose, which will be dedicated to safely re-opening campuses—starting with elementary schools—and advocating for other policy solutions."
Los Angeles County has met the criteria that permits elementary school students to go back to class for in-person learning.
Learning and loss: Students approach a year sitting in a virtual classroom
The San Diego Unified School District announced it reached an agreement with educators that will pave the way for schools to reopen schools:
"The schools must have all the necessary mitigation: masks for everybody, proper ventilation, and testing for adults and students on campus every two weeks even if they do not show symptoms. All teachers and school staff who come on campus will need to have access to two doses of the vaccine. The last piece is the downtrend in cases must continue."
Colorado:
The Colorado Education Initiative (CEI) and Early Milestones Colorado organized a coalition of 30 partners which released "Advancing Summer Opportunities to Stem Pre-K – 5 Learning Loss and Accelerate High School Engagement."
Denver Public Schools released a draft plan for academic recovery that includes academics, extended learning opportunities, intensive tutoring, and SEL supports.
Florida: Reacting to the CDC guidance, Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran released a statement saying Florida’s schools have been operating safely since August 2020 and will continue to do so.
Illinois:
NYT interview with Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot on what she learned from battling the teachers’ union.
Chicago-area Catholic school students exceed expectations on standardized assessments
"Of the 7,382 students who took the i-Ready exam in the fall of 2019 and fall of 2020, the majority in kindergarten through second grade, students performed on average at 105% of the expected learning growth in math, and at 130% in reading."
"Candice Usauskas, principal of St. Mary Star of the Sea School, in the city’s West Lawn neighborhood, said she is pleased, but not surprised, that her students — 95% Latino and 75% English-language learners — performed well on their recent i-Ready assessments."
Side Note: Chicago's Catholic Schools largely kept their doors open.
Maryland: Long piece: With Maryland schools planning to reopen, teacher unions say classrooms aren’t safe enough yet from coronavirus
Michigan: Governor Whitmer creates the Student Recovery Advisory Council tasked with developing recommendations to improve systems for:
Academic support for students who experienced learning loss due to COVID-19.
Mental and physical health for students impacted by COVID-19.
Support high school students transitioning into postsecondary education.
Out-of-school time supports, including, but not limited to, summer school, before and after school programs, and extended school years.
Nebraska: Districts beefing up summer school, credit-recovery efforts to help children catch up.
"In five of 11 metro Omaha districts nearly a third of high school remote learners failed two or more courses last fall. In two other metro districts more than a quarter did."
"34% of OPS high schoolers failed two or more courses — that’s approximately 5,100 high schoolers. That compares to a pre-pandemic rate in fall 2019 of 19.2%."
For OPS middle schoolers in remote, the two-course fail rate was 38.3%.
Millard Superintendent Jim Sutfin said that to recover, kids will have to step up. “If you have failed courses, you’re going to have to do more,” Sutfin said. “We have a system and a structure that can help you do more. But you’re going to have to do more if you want that diploma.”
The number of Nebraska children being home-schooled was up 56.6% over the previous year.
Ohio: Gov. DeWine intimated that Ohio school districts that choose not to return to in-person learning by March 1 will no longer be eligible to receive vaccinations for their staff as part of the Phase 1B distribution currently taking place.
"We learned this week that Walnut Hills High School will remain remote the entire year," DeWine said. "That simply is not acceptable."
"There are social and mental health consequences," he said of remote learning. "That's why we prioritized vaccines for schools -- otherwise, they'd go to a more vulnerable group."
Rhode Island: The Hassenfeld Institute for Public Leadership convened the Rhode Island School Superintendents’ Association, the Rhode Island Association of School Committees, the Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, the National Education Association Rhode Island, and the Rhode Island Foundation to explore academic recovery. The group released recommendations which include:
Focus primarily on the critical concepts in Literacy and Mathematics
Include plans for financial and other incentives to encourage participation and family support;
Scale up existing Summer Academy for Interactive Learning (SAIL) programs
Partner with community resources to address students’ social and emotional needs
Align during-, before- and after-school, as well as summer school “ramp-up” and “catch-up” opportunities
Build the initial program with the assumption of a one-year learning loss
South Carolina:
Palmetto State Teachers Association (PSTA) and South Carolina Education Association (SCEA) react to the CDC guidance.
The state hired Education Analytics to compile learning assessment data.
"Of the sample of students they looked at, 46% tested “low” in ELA and 32% test “low” in Math."
"Fall learning loss was especially pronounced for 4th and 5th grade students in ELA and for 4th through 8th grade students in Math."
Tennessee: The Shelby County Health Department had 1,200 vaccination doses at risk of being discarded to distribute, so they offered them to teachers.
Virginia:
Superintendent of Public Instruction James Lane announced the Virginia LEARNS (Leading, Engaging, Assessing, Recovering, Nurturing and Succeeding)
Virginia Democrats to unveil plan to reopen schools as political pressure mounts.
This isn't a typo: "The proposal calls for school systems to devise plans for both in-person and virtual instruction during the 2021-2022 academic year that follow federal health guidelines."
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Biden Extends Eviction Moratorium Until June: Details here.
LEARNING PODS
‘Learning pods’ Taking Toot in Black, Latino Neighborhoods: Really interesting article on pods in Boston:
"The organizations are the YMCA of Greater Boston; Latinos for Education; The BASE, which supports student athletes; and Inquilinos Boricuas en Acción, which advocates for low-income families in Boston."
"Besides the Community Learning Collaborative, more than 1,900 students attend more than a hundred free full-day, in-person learning pods in an assortment of community centers in Dorchester, East Boston, Chinatown, and other parts of the city, according to Chris Smith, who runs Boston After School & Beyond, a network of out-of-school programs and services."
"The Rev. David Wright, executive director of BMA Ten Point Coalition, an alliance of 30 predominantly Black churches, said the alliance transformed its Victory Generations afterschool program into full-day learning pods at two of its churches, in Roxbury and Dorchester. Together they serve nearly two dozen kindergarten through sixth-grade students, whose families pay a little more than $200 weekly for staffing and other costs, said Rochelle Jones, the director."
RESOURCES
An Equitable Return to Early Education Demands a Smart Approach to Data: Interesting data analysis from the Urban Institute.
Governors Start 2021 By Expanding Access To Broadband: Great roundup by NGA with excerpts from 32 state-of-the-state addresses along with summaries of additional budget proposals.
Boosting Broadband Adoption: New Brookings paper from former FCC Chairman Wheeler
Parent Sentiment on School Reopening: A HuffPost/YouGov poll:
One-third of parents who have children in K-12 schools want schools to remain closed or online-only
"Democrats (57%) believe the risks of reopening schools are greater than the consequences of keeping schools closed. Republicans believe the opposite: 60% say the repercussions of continuing remote-only learning are more significant than the concerns of increased COVID-19 cases."
"White Americans lean toward reopening schools (46% vs 35%), and Black Americans tend to believe they should be kept closed (25% vs 45%)."
"If teacher unions did choose to strike over unsafe work conditions, most Americans (56%) would strongly or somewhat support them."
Teacher Invented a Bluetooth Mask: Angela Rinaldi invented a mask with a small pocket for a Bluetooth microphone which when paired with a computer, allows the remote students to hear a teacher as they walk around class.
"The teacher walks around the room, and as the teacher is teaching the students in the room, the students at home hear it perfectly as if they’re right in front of the computer,” she explained. “I buy the masks in bulk. I do all the sewing myself and I had never sewed before.”
"A Progressive Parent’s Rant About the Politics Surrounding School Reopening": Widely shared post from the weekend:
"I just don’t know how anyone can sit by and think this is an acceptable state of affairs for a developed country — it just makes my blood boil to see how little this country cares about kids. All of Europe has done the right thing — schools are last to close, first to open. It’s simply not a political stance in Europe (as it is here) to say we need to reopen schools for the sake of kids wellbeing and emotional and academic development."
"Because here’s the thing: parents are not willing to sacrifice their kids’ wellbeing for the sake of ideology or being a good leftist. And they shouldn’t. It’s our most important job to do what’s best for our kids."
"Last March we didn’t know any better. But now we know — and we’ve known for months. Europe opened up in the fall. Florida, Texas, all the red states opened up. Rhode Island was one of the few blue states that was committed to putting kids first. Can you remember even one major outbreak that was tied to school transmission (not a handful of cases, but an outbreak)? I can’t. And teachers aren’t at greater risk either."
"Lastly, I just want to say: many parents feel absolutely betrayed by teachers unions. I think they’re making a massive miscalculation with these rigid, stances not backed up by any data and demands that go way beyond what their public health officials are suggesting"
The Political Fallout of Closed Schools:
Via Politico (Related, this
"Nearing a year into the pandemic, Biden’s advisers and allies recognize that they need to respond to the spiraling angst felt by families or risk driving them into the arms of waiting Republicans."
The coronavirus is spawning sweeping policy prescriptions from Democrats and Republicans alike, from billions in school reopening funds to the creation of a federal child allowance. And it’s prompting pollsters to loosely coin emerging voter demos like “women in chaos” and “families in crisis.”
“The science says that the schools should open, but instead of listening to the science, the Biden administration is caving in to Democrat special interest groups,” RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told POLITICO. “As a result, the education of our children is suffering and hundreds of thousands of working moms are being forced out of the workforce.”
“President Biden isn’t going to rest until students are back in school five days a week, and if Republicans agree, they should match their words with action and support the president’s Rescue Plan, which will get schools the resources they desperately need to reopen safely,” said Michael Gwin, a White House spokesperson."
"Republicans focused on House races said they were surprised to find in extensive polling last cycle that voters were about evenly split on whom they held responsible for school closures, according to operatives involved in the effort. The findings, they believed, were a direct result of Trump’s lack of credibility on the pandemic and the school issues specifically."
#OpenOurSchools: GOP targets teachers unions in bid to retake suburbs
Twitter thread started by former Bush/Romney alum Kevin Madden (now with Arnold Ventures) captures other elements of the debate.
AFT Poll: Released today:
23% of AFT members say they have already been vaccinated
Just 16% think their school system has gone too far with reopening
85% would be comfortable working in classrooms if the AFT’s safety recommendations were followed and funded.
79%, say remote learning is not working as well as in-person.
David Winston Poll: Past the midway point of the school year, voters have grown more pessimistic, with 62% now believing students will be at least somewhat behind, and a third (34%) saying they will be significantly behind.
Harriet Tubman: Renowned as a Black liberator, Harriet Tubman was also a brilliant spy and was just officially inducted in the Military Intelligence Corps Hall of Fame.