COVID-19 Policy Update #209
COVID-19 Policy Update
MONDAY 3/1
It was a busy weekend with the House passing the $1.9 trillion COVID relief package, the CDC quietly updating school ventilation guidance, and J&J vaccine approvals. We also have a new tracker from AEI and an update from Emily Oster's tracker. So tonight's update pairs well with a Hall Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon 2016.
The Hall wine cave made a brief appearance during the Presidential primary, but the winery also offers us an opportunity to understand the way automation is impacting the future of work. It takes a traditional winery over an hour using 15 human sorters to sort two tons of grapes. Hall Wines uses an optical grape sorter which can sort through the same amount in 12 minutes with zero human sorters. The way it works is that each morning, the head winemaker feeds 200 perfect grapes to the machine which analyzes the color, shape, and other characteristics of the "ideal grape." Grapes are then fed into the system where a camera takes 10,000 frames per second pictures and compares each grape to the "ideal." A puff of air sends an imperfect grape to a separate hopper leaving the best for the award winning Hall wines. Here's a video. USA Today has more. The lesson is not just that automation displaces lower-skilled skilled jobs but it also increases the skills needed with new jobs, in this case workers understanding how to program and use a piece of artificial intelligence as part of winemaking.
TOP THREE
ONS Study Suggests Teachers Face Same Risk As Other Jobs: Study out today along with data on a number of other issues including difficulty of implementing mitigation measures. More from the BMJ and the BBC.
"Found no statistical evidence of a difference between school staff testing positive for coronavirus antibodies compared with the wider working-age population in the same local authorities."
“Early findings suggest that school staff were not at higher risk of infection than working age adults in the wider community, but also that there are some COVID-19 infections in schools,” Sinéad Langan, Professor of Clinical Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
In December, 15% of teaching and support staff tested positive for antibodies compared to about 18% of people of working age in the same local authorities - giving them about an average risk for their age.
As School Closures Near First Anniversary, a Diverse Parent Movement Demands Action: Via the NYT
"So Ms. Tyler is planning a radical change: moving her family to Florida, where the Republican-controlled state government has mandated that all districts provide in-person learning five days per week. A niece there is attending traditional public school in Sarasota, complete with sports, arts and music. “Everywhere else, kids are given better opportunities and chances, other than Philadelphia,” she said. “It’s a slap in the face consistently.”
"Prior to this pandemic, we didn’t ask questions” of local school officials, said Keven Gessner, a father of four and pharmaceutical executive who plans to run for school board in the Council Rock district in Bucks County, Pa"
"Frustrated when the Unionville-Chadds Ford district’s long closure gave way to only part-time schedules for most middle and high school students, he and his wife, both lawyers, enrolled their 11th-grader in private school, and are home-schooling their 12- and 14-year-olds. He is a supporter of Open PA Schools, a group that filed a lawsuit against the state and several districts, arguing that extended virtual learning violates Pennsylvania law. The case is pending."
“We feel the district is taking advantage of our disadvantage. Not only are we a minority school, but we face economic and financial troubles,” added Ms. Engleman, who is multiracial. “I don’t think the school district thought parents would get together and fight this.”
Why Opening Windows Is a Key to Reopening Schools: NYT interactive including an Augmented Reality experience with your phone.
The article coincided with the CDC releasing guidance on ventilation with schools and childcare settings.
FEDERAL
COVID Relief Package:
The House voted early Saturday morning to approve a $1.9 trillion stimulus package. The Senate is expected to vote on the package this Friday after which it will be sent back to the House for a final vote.
FutureEd has a breakdown of the education funding.
ED: Senate Confirms Cardona 64-33. Vote Roll Call here.
HHS: Announced several new hires including:
Katie Hamm will serve as the Associate Deputy Assistant Secretary for Early Childhood Development
Jennifer Cannistra will serve as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy
Dr. Bernadine Futrell will serve as the Director of the Office of Head Start
SNAP: ED and USDA issued joint-guidance for institutions of higher education on the temporarily expanded SNAP for students. Guidance / Press Release
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Vaccine:
The CDC recommended use of J&J’s vaccine, authorized by the FDA Saturday and endorsed yesterday by the CDC’s expert panel on vaccination policy, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
Johnson & Johnson is also planning trials of its vaccine that will include infants.
Novavax's vaccine could be approved as soon as May. If the FDA requires data from the US trials, it could take an additional two months.
Vaccine Distribution: "The US vaccine campaign has heightened tensions between rural and urban America, where from Oregon to Tennessee to upstate New York complaints are surfacing of a real — or perceived — inequity in vaccine allocation."
Coronavirus Reinfection Will Soon Become Our Reality: Good piece at the Atlantic:
"But untangling how and why the coronavirus reestablishes itself in certain people is essential to preventing that from happening. Understanding reinfection will affect how we develop vaccines and treatments, and monitor the virus’s movements in the future. It could help us figure out how durable immunity to the coronavirus truly is, and the limits of the virus’s capacity to change."
Pediatric Influenza Deaths: A remarkable graph from the CDC. The protections used with COVID have also led to a record low deaths from influenza.
STATE
California:
The Los Angeles school district will get the COVID-19 vaccines it needs by the end of next week to inoculate staff and reopen its elementary schools.
This OC school has been back in classrooms for months. Here's how they're successfully navigating COVID
Via KQED, after leading school closures, Berkeley Teachers Union President spotted dropping daughter off at in-person preschool
Gov. Newsom strikes school reopening deal with lawmakers.
"Would offer $2 billion in grants to schools that open transitional kindergarten through second grade by the end of March and bring back at-risk students in all grades."
"Once counties move into the red tier — with daily case rates below 7 per 100,000 residents — schools eligible for the grant funding must open to all elementary grades, plus at least one grade in middle and high school."
"If schools do not open by the end of March, they will start to lose a percentage of money for each day they remain closed starting April 1."
Colorado: Gov. Polis really, really, really hates the coronavirus.
Connecticut: Teachers are eligible this week for vaccinations.
Illinois: 37,000 K-5 students returning to school in Chicago.
"N. Side, NW Side schools see bigger share of students returning"
"If a student’s temperature taken at the entrance registers above 100.4 or if they develop symptoms during the day, they’ll be sent to a designated isolation room until their parent or guardian picks them up."
"Students will bring their CPS-issued laptops and tablets to school and back home every day. Kids who use their own privately purchased devices for remote learning will be asked to keep those home and will instead have a CPS device to use at school."
Maryland: Schools began to reopen today.
Massachuests: 40% of Boston high school juniors and seniors are chronically absent.
"The most striking increases in chronic absenteeism — defined as missing at least 10 percent of classes — occurred among Black, Latino, disabled, and English-learner students, according to Boston school district data, which showed that across all grades, the chronically absent rate rose from 21 to 26 percent."
Michigan: Detroit public schools to resume in-person learning on March 8.
Minnesota: Lakeville family moves to South Dakota for open schools.
New York: NYC schools chancellor resigns, citing COVID-19 personal toll
North Carolina: Gov. Cooper vetoed (statement here) a bill that would compel the state’s 115 K-12 public school districts to reopen with at least partial in-person instruction, while also allowing parents the option of keeping their kids learning remotely.
Washington:
Seattle teachers union files unfair labor practice complaints against the school district.
According to a report by The Remote Learning Task Force"
About 60% of lower-income students are currently able to log into online instruction compared to 90% of high-income students with more resources including reliable access.
There is still a shortage of 200,000 devices.
The task force also recommends:
"A statewide move to more formative assessments in lieu of summative assessments when possible"
"Districts define and articulate an anti-racist frame and create a plan for reviewing and resolving policies regularly, both horizontally and vertically across departments and schools."
"Goal of 150 symmetrical megabits by 2028 (per Senate Bill 5511), the Task Force proposes interim goals of 50/20 statewide speeds by 2023, and 100/40 by 2026"
INTERNATIONAL
Finland: Is likely to close schools due to a rise in COVID cases.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
School Closures ‘Sideline’ Working Mothers: New study by Caitlyn Collins from Washington University in St. Louis:
"At the start of the 2019-20 school year, U.S. mothers’ rate of labor participation was, on average, 18 percentage points less than fathers"
"By last September, the gap grew to over 23 percentage points in states where schools primarily offered remote instruction."
"In comparison, in states where in-person instruction was most common, the gender gap in parents’ labor force participation grew by less than 1 percentage point, to 18.4%."
"Maryland – where schools across the state primarily opened remotely in 2020 – experienced the largest drop in mothers’ labor force participation. In 2019, Maryland mothers with elementary-age children had a 90% predicted probability of being in the labor force. When schools opened in 2020, that probability dropped to 74%, representing a 16-point drop."
Why I Changed My Mind About Heartland Worker Visas: Good piece from Noah Smith.
Virus Did Not Bring Financial Rout That Many States Feared: Via NYT
Distressed Communities and COVID: Certain pockets of America are feeling a 'disproportionate impact' from the coronavirus pandemic.
RESOURCES
School Dashboard Update: Via Emily Oster:
"Even in the early rounds of data collection, it became clear schools were not super-spreaders. This has been reinforced again and again in our data, in other data, in the lived experience of the last year."
"Our data has also allowed us to make some progress on comparing school rates with community rates. The first graph below shows rates in in-person students and staff relative to their matched communities over all of the dashboard data (you’d see similar patterns if you limited to particular states, which you can check out yourself.) The comparison with community rates isn’t exactly apples to apples, since these rates are determined in part by the intensity of testing and the community isn’t demographically matched to teachers or students, but it gives a sense."
"In general, we see school rates move with community rates. School staff show up with similar rates to the community, students with lower rates. This is what we would expect if there was relatively little in-school transmission. Basically, schools reflect their communities because staff and students live in these communities."
Return To Learn Tracker: A tool developed by AEI in partnership with The College Crisis Initiative (C2i) of Davidson College, that captures how US public school districts' instructional models change during the coronavirus pandemic.
Instructional offerings can be broken down by poverty, broadband access, urbanity, and presidential vote.
State rankings and maps also available.
Teacher Survey: Learning Loss is Global—and Significant: McKinsey report. Teachers report students are on average two months behind.
Substitute Shortages: NBC story with how districts are creatively addressing their substitute shortages.
"Even before the coronavirus hit, schools were able to fill only about 54 percent of 250,000 teacher vacancies each day."
"The main strategy states have used is simply to make it easier to become a sub. At the start of this school year, the Missouri State Board of Education suspended its requirement that applicants have 60 college credits to be certified as substitute teachers."
"Gwinnett is finding substitutes for only about 67 percent of teacher vacancies."
Similar stories from South Carolina and Illinois.
School Counselors: Predict how COVID-19 will change our kids
The Distribution of School Spending Impacts: NBER paper.
"On average, a $1000 increase in per-pupil public school spending (for four years) increases test scores by 0.044 standard deviations, high-school graduation by 2.1 percentage points, and college-going by 3.9 percentage points"
"Consistent with a cumulative effect, the educational attainment impacts are larger with more years of exposure to the spending increase."
COVID-19 has Persuaded Some Parents That Home-Schooling is Better: Via the Economist
"Research published in November by the Association of Directors of Children’s Services, a group that represents local officials, found the number of home-educated children in England had increased by 40% to about 75,000 in the year to October 2020."
"Many employers will probably continue to allow their staff to work more flexibly. In America prolonged school closures have popularised strategies that home educators have long used to improve learning and spread the burden of teaching. Many home-schooling parents form co-operatives. They share the cost of, say, extra maths tuition, and their kids play together."
COVID Testing: Via The 74: "200 Schools, Universal Weekly COVID Screening: How ‘Assurance Testing’ Has Kept Thousands of Texas Students in Classrooms"
"It’s a game changer,” said San Antonio ISD Superintendent Pedro Martinez, adding the tests are an additional safety measure. Assurance testing isn’t a cure, he reiterated, but it has lived up to its name, giving teachers and parents the assurance needed to keep kids in school and continue doing what works — social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing."
The Tragedy of the Lost School Year: Via Matthew Yglesias
Biden Wants to Reopen Schools. Here's Why That's So Hard To Do: Via CNN
Mental Health ER Visits Set Record: In New Hampshire
"51 children waited in emergency rooms statewide for hospitalization because of mental health crises – the highest recorded on any single day, according to hospital counts."
Join Us on Clubhouse: Andy Rotherham and I are going to give Clubhouse a try this Wed, March 3 at 12pm EST/9 am PST discussing School Reopening - Policy, Practice, and Politics
Crack in a Wall: "Life happens and then you figure how do I get out of this situation. And then God provides a crack in a wall. And that crack is just enough for you to get through. You just found that crack. That was the moment that will change your life.