COVID-19 Policy Update #240
COVID-19 Policy Update
FRIDAY 4/23
TOP THREE
Johnson & Johnson: ACIP recommended to lift the pause on Johnson & Johnson vaccine. 10-4 (1 abstention).
Language voted on was "The Janssen Covid-19 vaccine is recommended for persons 18 years of age and older in the US population under the FDA’S Emergency Use Authorization."
New language will be added to specify the very rare possibility of blood clot disorder.
There was some disagreement about whether the warning should be stronger, especially for women <50.
Real-world Data, Not Predictions, Should Drive Decisions on Covid-19 and School Opening: Via Stat:
"After nine months of observing school closures and reopenings, we identified two factors that appear to be influencing decision-makers toward making less rational, less effective school-reopening policies: overreliance on alarming “predictive” models that are not actually predictive, and media reports based on data that are poorly analyzed and then manipulated to fit preconceived negative narratives."
"We used publicly available data collected by the CDC from Michigan and Minnesota, two states in the news throughout March and April due to their case surges, to examine claims that children were getting sicker due to variants and that cases and hospitalizations were rising in children more than in other ages."
"Michigan and Minnesota, which both have a high prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant, had large surges in cases between March and early April, but showed no increase in severe illness (represented by hospitalizations) among children in these states "
"Our analyses indicate that Covid-19 cases are not increasing more rapidly in school-aged children nationwide than in any other age group. Although K-12 aged children are the least-vaccinated age group, they had the lowest rise in cases except 18- to 24-year-olds."
Biden is Meeting His Modest School-Reopening Goal — But Progress Is Uneven: Via Washington Post.
"In February, 47 percent of schools serving fourth-graders and 46 percent of schools for eighth-graders offered full-time, in-person classes."
"But the trend toward reopening, while significant, obscures vast unevenness across the country. The people least likely to be in school are students of color and those living on the coasts. It’s in communities where Biden’s support is highest that children are most likely to remain at home."
"More than half of school districts in counties where Trump won were fully open during the first week in April. But where Biden won, just 25 percent are open for full-time classes, according to the Return to Learn tracker run by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank."
"Parents of color, particularly those in marginalized, underserved communities, simply don’t trust that the schools will keep their children safe, said Eboni-Rose Thompson, a community activist who serves on the D.C. State Board of Education."
FEDERAL
ED: Announced state allocations for the $800 million from ARP for homeless students.
Infrastructure:
The Biden Administration is considering almost doubling the capital gains tax rate for wealthy individuals to 39.6% as part of the pay-fors for the infrastructure packages. The Tax Foundation has more details.
Republicans offered their infrastructure counter proposal which comes in at $568 billion. Represents 160% more funding for roads and bridges, 76% more for airports, less for the rest.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
IHME Update: Weekly Briefing
Their model projects 603,000 cumulative deaths on August 1. This represents 38,000 additional deaths from April 19 to August 1
% of population that has been vaccinated or is open to receiving a vaccine:
STATE
California: Missing kindergartners drive largest drop in 20 years in K-12 enrollment.
Enrollment in K-12 public schools in California fell by almost 3%, or 160,000 students in 20-21.
More than a third of the decline stemmed from 61,000 missing kindergarteners.
The falling numbers were spread across the state, with the four largest districts accounting for about a sixth of the decline in enrollment. Los Angeles Unified enrollment fell by 20,841 (4.76%); Long Beach by 2,003 (2.8%), San Diego by 4,270 (4.2%) and Fresno 909 (1.3%). In the Bay Area, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties all lost more than 3% and Marin fell by 4.7%.
Florida: Miami-Dade's summer school will be 10 times larger this year to combat the COVID slide
Minnesota:
The state is doubling down on COVID tests for middle and high school students, after an increase in coronavirus cases in children.
Minnesota health officials said that the number of school-related COVID-19 cases reported this week among students has now exceeded the peak seen during a surge of cases in November.
New York: NY1/Ipsos poll
58% of parents say their child is falling behind in school because of COVID-19
58% of parents agree attending school in-person is safe, versus 36% who disagree
A plurality, 48%, agree that all city schools should reopen before the school year ends, versus 41% who disagree
Virginia: Arlington school leaders on defense over reopening plans
INTERNATIONAL
Japan: The Government plans to keep schools open as other restrictions are activated in response to COVID-19 cases.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%
Housing: Existing-home sales, which make up the bulk of the housing market, totaled 5.64 million in 2020, up 5.6% from 2019 and the highest level since the 2006 pace of 6.48 million.
"The median existing-home sales price in March rose by a record-breaking annual pace of 17.2% to a historic high of $329,100, with all regions posting double-digit price gains."
Assessing the Scale and Reach of Opportunity Zones’ First Year: Via EIG
RESOURCES
The Rockefeller Foundation Expands Rapid-Result Covid-19 Testing Program to Reopen K-12 Schools in Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area: The grant from The Rockefeller Foundation will support the Consortium testing program in Baltimore City Public Schools (City Schools) and DC Public Charter Schools
How the Pandemic Is Affecting Schools’ Mandated Collection of Key Civil Rights Data: Via EdWeek
"The instructions say student suspensions in virtual as well as in-person school settings should count the same; if students were temporarily blocked from their virtual classrooms and transferred to a different and supervised virtual setting, that’s a suspension."
"There’s a section concerning student arrests in virtual schooling. And preschool expulsions include those stemming from both virtual and in-person activities, although the instructions specify that preschoolers who are moved to “more appropriate” settings shouldn’t be considered expelled."
"More broadly, the department asks schools to indicate whether they offered only in-person instruction with additional safety protocols, only virtual instruction due to the coronavirus pandemic, a hybrid of the two, or if their instruction was unaffected by COVID-19 during the 2020-21 school year. How schools answer those questions affects their subsequent responses to different survey questions."
What Do You Do When the Kids Are Still Unvaccinated? Via David Leonhardt
“It’s really important to look at a child’s overall health rather than a Covid-only perspective,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, a pandemic expert at Johns Hopkins University, told me. Keeping children isolated is particularly fraught for lower-income parents, because it forecloses child-care options and can keep them from working a normal schedule."
"Any decision about family life over the next several months will have to involve weighing one set of dangers against another. My goal here is to walk you through the risks that Covid poses to children."
"But Covid’s effect on children has been fundamentally different from its effect on adults. For children, Covid looks much more like the kind of risk that society has long tolerated, without upending daily life."
“For the average kid, Covid is a negligible risk,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, told me. Dr. Richterman added that he would not upend his family’s life to avoid every possible exposure to children."
"Consider that Covid-19 has killed fewer than 450 Americans under the age of 18, which is less than a flu season often does. The flu can be deadlier for children than Covid has been, even though most children receive a flu vaccine."
"For people under the age of 18, Covid is really not that big of a risk,” said Stephen Kissler, a researcher at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “I do think of it as on par with the risk from flu.”
Side Note: Emily Oster made these same arguments a few weeks ago which generated a bunch of Twitter outrage that hasn't been directed toward Leonhardt.
To Get Remaining COVID-19 Aid, Schools and States Must Detail In-Person Learning Plans: Via EdWeek
As 100-Day Mark Approaches, Has Biden Met His School Reopening Goal? And What Comes Next?: Via EdWeek
Colleges & Vaccines: More than 30 colleges now say Covid vaccines will be mandatory for fall 2021
Bartender: Creates Adorable Tinytini For Toddler Son