A quick update on the COVID update. As many of you know, this was a somewhat accidental "newsletter." It started as an internal Slack channel in the early days of COVID and eventually became an email shared with a group of philanthropies along with others who asked to be added.
The idea has always been to provide a daily summary of the news, research, and resources that could help us better make sense of the rapidly unfolding events related to COVID. Based on the August pulse survey, we learned that these updates have helped change state and federal policies, shape several philanthropic strategies, and inform the work of organizations at the state and local levels. I also asked if we should continue them and you resoundingly said yes.
So I'm excited to announce a few changes:
Substack: We're going to move the COVID Update over to the Substack platform. There are a couple of reasons behind this including that it is the easiest way to provide searchable archives. It also makes it easier for others to find and subscribe to the newsletter, so please share with your networks. This will still be free - no paid subscriptions or ads.
What Do You Have to Do?: Nothing. I'll migrate the list over tonight and you should start receiving the new version tomorrow. If you can’t find the newsletter, check your spam folder or look under the Promotions tab. And please mark the address covid19policyupdate@substack.com as ‘not spam.’
Weekly Edition: I've also started to do a weekly COVID synopsis over the The 74. For those who want less of a daily update and more of a weekly review, sign up here.
That's all for now. I'm grateful for the feedback you offered and also for the important work you all are leading.
With appreciation,
--John
Top Three
FDA Panel Endorses Pfizer Vaccines for 5-11 Year Olds: There was a lot of drama with today's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) meeting, but they eventually voted overwhelmingly to recommend the vaccine saying the benefits outweigh the risks.Great liveblogs were provided by Stat and CNBC. Katelyn Jetelina also has a summary.
Members were flooded by an organized email campaign urging them not to recommend the vaccine.
Some committee members questioned whether every child really needed the vaccine or whether it should be limited to those at high risk of severe Covid-19.
"Dr James Hildreth says "it seems like we're vaccinating children to protect adults, when it should be the other way around," noting one study suggested 42% of kids may already have had Covid."
The FDA's Dr. Peter Marks told the committee Covid-19 is now one of the top ten causes of death among children 5 to 11.
FDA staff also presented some really interesting data weighting the risks and benefits. Their model showed that at the current rate of infection, the benefits seemed to clearly outweigh the risks. But if the infection rate dropped, it was a closer call. Additional data was presented on myocarditis risk (see below). But committee members expressed concern that the models were too conservative. There was a lot of discussion around myocarditis and why cases occur more often with boys, not girls (see graph below).
Some members expressed concern about school mandates: "I’m just worried that if we say yes, that the states are going to mandate administration of this vaccine to children in order to go to school, and I do not agree with that,” committee member Dr. Cody Meissner said. “I think that would be an error at this time until we get more information about the safety.”
Pfizer said their vaccine will include different directions and packaging to help medical providers avoid confusing the shots with the company’s doses for individuals over 12.
The committee voted on the question, "Based on the totality of scientific evidence available, do the benefits of the Pfizer- BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine when administered as a 2-dose series (10 micrograms each dose, 3 weeks apart) outweigh its risks for use in children 5-11 years of age?" Yes: 17, No: 0, Abstain: 1
Also - there have been more than 2,000 Covid-19 related school closures nationwide since August, affecting more than 1 million children and 68,000 teachers, said CDC official Dr. Fiona Havers, citing Google News data.
Sidenote: It's disappointing that our federal government is relying on Google news for data about school closures instead of having a more official, comprehensive source of data.
What's next: CDC takes it up for approval on Nov. 2 & 3 and rollout could come as soon as next week.
Key to Closing Teacher-Student Relationship Gap is 1:1 Connections: New report by Gradient Learning based on a survey of 1,031 students aged 13 and older. Findings include:
Strong relationships with educators correspond with student belonging. Of students surveyed who indicated that they have a strong relationship with a teacher, 70% or more said that they pay attention or participate in class more and look forward to and enjoy class. At the same time, a total of 72% of students surveyed said that they wish they had an opportunity to share more about what’s on their mind with teachers.
Access to strong relationships with teachers is unequal. The findings indicate that more students of color - Asian Pacific Islander (33%), Hispanic (28%), and mixed race (31%) - did not feel they had a strong relationship with a teacher in the past year, compared to white students (20%).
Barriers stand in the way of students having more direct communication with their teachers. A total of 35% of students surveyed said that they are not reaching out to a teacher because it’s awkward or uncomfortable for them to do so.
Teachers initiating 1:1 is key. The survey indicated that almost half of students (49%) prefer to connect with a teacher 1:1, however 31% (nearly a third) of students said they are not having regular check-ins with a teacher.
Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index: New survey
Majorities of Americans have confidence in the Biden administration to make the vaccine widely available (76%) and distribute it quickly (70%) — including to children age 5-11
Just one in five (21%) are confident the administration can convince skeptics to get the vaccine.
Just over 1-in-4 Americans correctly identify that a vaccinated 80-year-old is at greater risk of dying of COVID-19 than an unvaccinated 30-year-old.
Americans are split on whether unvaccinated people and vaccinated people are equally likely to test positive for COVID-19. Four in ten (40%) correctly identify this as false, while another 38% erroneously believe it to be true, and 21% say they don’t know
While a majority (60%) correctly identify that an unvaccinated person is at least 10 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than a vaccinated person, just over one in four (26%) say they don’t know and 14% believe this to be false
Nearly a quarter (23%) of Americans don’t know whether the vaccine is effective in preventing serious illness among people with 'breakthrough' cases, while two thirds (66%) correctly indicate this is true and 11% say it’s false.
Federal
White House: The President made three nominations today important for broadband policy. More via Axios.
Jessica Rosenworcel, FCC
Gigi Sohn, FCC
Alan Davidson, Nominee for Assistant Secretary for Communications and Information at the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, Department of Commerce
Treasury: Janis Bowdler, who most recently worked as president of the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Foundation, will become the department’s first counselor for racial equity.
Reconciliation:
Sen. Manchin told reporters Monday he still wants the bill to cost no more than $1.5 trillion.
Punchbowl reports that Democratic leaders are racing this week to wrap up a bicameral agreement on their reconciliation framework, followed by a quick vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, perhaps as early as Wednesday.
WSJ has a good explainer of how the billionaire tax would work, but note that no one has really seen the text yet.
COVID-19 Research
Why People Believe Covid Conspiracy Theories: Via the Guardian
Guaranteed Financial Incentives for COVID-19 Vaccination: New study
"This quasi-experimental study used a 2-week pilot incentive program that guaranteed a $25 cash card to adults who either received or drove someone to receive their first dose of COVID-19 at participating sites in 4 counties in North Carolina."
"From the second baseline period to the intervention period, COVID-19 vaccine initiation declined less at sites offering the guaranteed financial incentive when compared with elsewhere in the same counties."
"Among 401 vaccine recipients surveyed (response rate, 92.4%; mean [SD] age, 41.8 [14.9] years; 207 [52%] women; 187 [47%] Black individuals), 41% reported the cash card was an important reason for vaccination."
"Providing a guaranteed small financial incentive is a potentially promising strategy to increase COVID-19 vaccination uptake. In this pilot program in North Carolina, incentives slowed the decline in vaccination and promoted more equitable distribution by alleviating barriers to vaccination, particularly for low-income, Black, and Hispanic individuals."
COVID Cases Falling, but Trouble Signs Arise as Winter Looms: Via the AP:
"COVID-19 deaths per day have begun to creep back up again after a decline that started in late September. Deaths are running at about 1,700 per day, up from close to 1,500 two weeks ago."
"The virus is still striking unvaccinated communities, many of them rural areas in states including North Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska and Minnesota."
"During a three-week stretch this month, rural hospitals in Minnesota were caring for more COVID-19 patients than those in the state’s major urban center, Minneapolis-St. Paul."
State
California: PPIC report, "Achieving Digital Equity for California’s Students."
Georgia: Muscogee County School District's COVID testing program found only .06% of students and .16% of employees tested positive.
Idaho: Online Idaho, a collaboration between state agencies and all eight public higher education institutions will build a digital campus of fully online learning opportunities and support.
New Hampshire: Students proficiency in math fell by 16 percentage points over two year and reading scores fell about 4 percentage points (results).
"Megan Tuttle, the president of NEA-New Hampshire, disputed the use of terms such as "learning loss" and "COVID slide," calling them "deficit oriented."
New Mexico: Awards $2 million contract for academic coaches.
Nevada:Is offering$5,000 grants to help students with disabilities recover from pandemic
New York: NYC "officials fear that as many 150,000 students may have not yet set foot in city classrooms this year."
International
Beyond Academic Learning: OECD's report "First Results from the Survey of Social and Emotional Skills"
Economic Recovery
California Unemployment Fraud Reaches $20 Billion:
“California has given away at least $20 billion to criminals in the form of fraudulent unemployment benefits, state officials said Monday, confirming a number smaller than originally feared but one that still accounts for more than 11% of all benefits paid since the start of the pandemic,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“State officials blamed nearly all of that fraud on a hastily approved expansion of unemployment benefits by Congress that let people who were self-employed get weekly checks from the government with few safeguards to stop people who were not eligible to receive them.”
Philanthropies Help HBCUs Take Their Education Online: Via Inside Higher Ed
America’s Entrepreneurial States: Supporting Entrepreneurs to Help Drive the Economy: New report from Heartland Forward
Their Entrepreneurial Capacity Index is a composite measure of entrepreneurship at the state level by combining Main Street (percent of total private sector employment) with knowledge-intensive metrics—sometimes referred to as tech focused— (percent of employees with bachelor’s degrees or above) at young firms five years of age or less."
"The top heartland state in the index is Texas at 14th (thanks to 8th in Main Street entrepreneurship), followed by Illinois at 20th with Minnesota (25th), the only other state among the top 25. Heartland states held 16 of the bottom 20 positions. West Virginia was 50th overall, sparing the heartland last place."
Resources
The Pandemic Could Have Unlocked Remote Schooling. It Hasn’t: By Robin Lake
"In our research tracking the 2021-22 reopening in states and school systems across the country, we’re seeing that, unfortunately, anywhere learning is not most students’ reality."
"Among the districts we track, 71 say they plan to support learning for students who have to quarantine. Nineteen districts—fewer than 2 in 5—guarantee students will have any real-time contact with a teacher. The continued disruptions promised by these figures threaten to exacerbate the pandemic’s toll on students’ learning and emotional well-being."
"ASU Prep Digital, a K-12 program affiliated with Arizona State University, is helping a charter school network in Cleveland provide every student who needs to quarantine two hours a day of live, one-on-one or small-group instruction from a teacher, plus a tailored set of assignments that ensures they will still be on track when they return to the classroom. The ASU online program is rolling out similar Learning Under Quarantine partnerships with other school districts across the country."
Equity Lessons Learned from Schools in the Time of COVID-19: EdTrust and other partners released Education Resources for State Leaders.
School Nurse Deficit Deepens as States Seek Relief: Via Pew
At least 25% of schools have no nurse and 35% have only a part-time nurse.
Hope You're Tackling This Week: With the same energy and enthusiasm as this dog tackling a door stop.