Top Three
White House: The President detailed his plan to protect against Delta & Omicron (Fact Sheet / Press Briefing transcript / NBC Story)
Plan elements:
Boosters for All Adults
Vaccinations to Protect Our Kids and Keep Our Schools Open
Expanding Free At-Home Testing for Americans
Stronger Public Health Protocols for Safe International Travel
Protections in Workplaces to Keep Our Economy Open
Rapid Response Teams to Help Battle Rising Cases
Supplying Treatment Pills to Help Prevent Hospitalizations and Death
Continued Commitment to Global Vaccination Efforts
Steps to Ensure We Are Prepared for All Scenarios
Two noteworthy items for schools:
It seems like CDC is finally getting close to releasing guidance for Test to Stay programs.
The Administration will issue a new “Safe School Checklist” to give schools a guidance for how to get as many of their staff and students vaccinated as possible.
We Opened the Schools and... It Was Fine: Aaron Carrol in The Atlantic.
"The Delta surge began long before classes resumed, and looking at the state-by-state data, you’d be hard-pressed to find bumps that can be pinned on the beginning of the semester."
"Schools aren’t the problem. They never have been."
"One of the frustrating things about the pandemic has been our inability, even at this late date, to understand why surges occur. They hit communities with mask mandates, and communities without."
"What is pretty certain, however, is that schools are not to blame. They didn’t cause the surges. They didn’t cause the massive numbers of hospitalizations and deaths that Florida experienced this summer and that Michigan appears to be experiencing now. They haven’t done nearly as much damage as bars, restaurants, and indoor events (including kids’ birthday parties), which never seem to receive the same amount of attention."
The Benefits of Vaccinating Kids against COVID Far Outweigh the Risks of Myocarditis: Via Scientific American
"Here is what scientists know: Vaccine-related myocarditis is extremely rare; estimates vary, but the highest figures suggest there have been fewer than 200 cases per million fully vaccinated males ages 12–15, the youngest age group for which such data currently exist. Only about 30 cases per million have been reported in vaccinated females of that age."
"The risk of getting COVID itself is much greater. From the beginning of March to October 10, over 1.9 million children in the U.S. ages five to 11 contracted the disease, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. More than 8,300 kids in that age range were hospitalized with COVID, and 94 died."
"Scientists at the Food and Drug Administration have modeled the risks to children from COVID itself versus vaccine-related myocarditis... Ultimately, the model indicates that the number of COVID cases prevented by vaccination vastly exceeds the number of excess myocarditis cases, and that the number of COVID-related hospitalizations exceeds those for vaccine-related myocarditis as well."
Omicron
Scientists Studying Omicron in South Africa See Rise in Covid-19 Reinfections: New preprint study.
Analysis "suggests that, in contrast to the Beta and Delta, the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrates substantial population-level evidence for evasion of immunity from prior infection."
"Suggests that Omicron can evade immunity from infection with earlier variants and is causing reinfections at three times previous rates."
"Previous infection used to protect against Delta, and now with Omicron it doesn’t seem to be the case,” said Professor Anne von Gottberg, a clinical microbiologist at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases, or NICD, and one of the authors of the paper"
Additional U.S. Cases Indicates Domestic Transmission:
One case in Minnesota is an adult male who had been vaccinated and, in early November, received a booster shot. The man had been in New York City in the days leading up to feeling sick and attended the Anime NYC 2021 convention at the Javits Center from Nov. 19 to Nov. 21.
Another was detected in Colorado with a woman who recently traveled several countries in southern Africa.
South Africa Cases:
"In an indication that large numbers of infections aren’t being detected, the proportion of tests coming back positive increased to 22.4% from 16.5% on Wednesday."
Financial Times visualizes the most recent data:
May Become Dominant in Europe in Months: “Based on mathematical modeling conducted by ECDC, there are indications that Omicron could cause over half of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in the EU/EEA within the next few months.”
Moderna: Could have a COVID-19 booster shot targeting the Omicron variant tested and ready to file for U.S. authorization as soon as March.
US Won't Lead on Omicron Data: Via Axios
"The CDC has repeatedly come under fire for inadequate data collection throughout the pandemic — and figuring out how to respond to Omicron requires a lot of data that doesn't currently exist."
"The CDC has been under fire for months for its lackluster tracking of breakthrough infections, and the U.S. was reliant on other countries for real-time data on waning vaccine effectiveness as Delta became dominant over the summer."
"To the extent we’re constantly relying on Israel, Britain and now South Africa ... that is the definition of flying blind," said Zeke Emanuel, vice provost for global initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania."
Federal
HHS: New Requirement for Head Start Staff Vaccination and Universal Masking
IES: New report: Estimating Changes to Student Learning in Illinois Following Extended School Building Closures due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
COVID-19 Research
Should I Get a Booster?: Great piece by Emily Oster.
Messaging: I want to specifically call out the last section of Emily's newsletter because this is so important, particularly at this moment when pandemic-guidance-news-fatigue is so high.
"I want to come back to where I started, about the messaging. It’s not that the message currently being sent is wrong. The advice that we are getting — on boosters or anything else — is usually based on the best knowledge at the moment. The problem is that it’s too often delivered with an air of certainty that the knowledge doesn’t support."
"This would be fine if people were amnesiac robots. If everyone woke up in the morning, forgot everything from the day before, checked the current guidance, and seamlessly took up that guidance, then the strategy of changing the guidance every day would be great. It would let you incorporate even small changes in knowledge in a seamless way."
"But people are not amnesiac robots, and our trust in guidance is based on consistency and understanding. In this world, we need messaging with more nuance, messaging that does a better job of explaining why the guidance is what it is and why it might change."
Related: Ten Theses on Trust: David Blankenhorn from Braver Angels offers a roadmap to rebuilding trust in American public and private life. Read the whole thing but this paragraph struck me:
"We’re haunted today by the fear that our political adversaries no longer argue about a country we both recognize.”
“This civic vertigo doesn’t occur because “they” have suddenly gone crazy or will no longer admit facts.”
“It occurs because almost no source of truth—no validator of reality—is still trusted by most Americans. The problem is not bad people. This is what occurs when good people in a failing system develop divergent realities based on who and what they trust."
Children With Poorly Controlled Asthma At Higher Risk Of Severe COVID-19: New study found children with poorly controlled asthma are three to six times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared with those without asthma.
Data Suggest Third COVID Vaccine Dose Reduces Infection, Hospitalization: Study finds a 1.8% SARS-CoV-2 infection rate after a booster dose, compared with 6.6% after two vaccine doses. Participants receiving the booster also seemed to be at lower risk for hospitalization.
Speaking of Durability...What J&J Can Still Teach Us: Via The Atlantic.
"On tracking the vaccine’s effectiveness, “there is no change, month over month over month.” The shot’s initial magnitude of protection against sickness might not match Moderna’s or Pfizer’s."
"But after they’re built, J&J’s defenses seem to stick around in a way that their mRNA-driven counterparts might not, like a low-wattage bulb that keeps burning, long after all the other lights in the room have flickered and died."
Comparing Vaccines: A large new study in the New England Journal of Medicine comparing shots made by Pfizer and Moderna found that both vaccines are very good, but Moderna’s was better at preventing infection, symptoms, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death.
"Breakthrough cases were rare, but veterans who got the Moderna shots had a 21% lower risk of infection and a 41% lower risk of hospitalization compared to those who got Pfizer/BioNTech’s."
“The lesson we take away is not about differences — it’s about similarities,” a companion editorial notes. “We are lucky to have such good options."
Elapsed Time Since Pfizer Vaccine and Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: New study finds "a gradual increase in the risk of infection was seen for individuals who received their second vaccine dose after at least 90 days."
Medical News Today says, "These results translated into a 2.37-fold higher chance of contracting the virus after 90 days from the second vaccination and a 2.82-fold higher likelihood after 150 days or more."
The Two Halves of the Pandemic: Via the Washington Post.
State
Illinois: Chicago third graders see declines in math and reading scores on state test.
"Fewer than one in five Chicago third graders met or exceeded state standards in reading and math on a standardized exam given in the spring — when a majority of students were doing most of their learning at home."
Chalkbeat has a searchable database. Some really depressing numbers in this - some schools with just 2 or 4% proficient.
Louisiana: Only 3% of children 5-11 have received COVID vaccine.
Michigan: Schools close to deep clean for COVID-19, expert says it's 'absurd.'
Oklahoma: Oklahoma City Public Schools to keep face mask requirement in place into next semester.
Pennsylvania: PA Supreme Court says school mask mandate can stay for now.
Texas: Appeals court reinstates mask mandate ban in schools.
International
Finland: Will limit children's COVID-19 vaccines to high-risk households.
Germany: Imposes lockdown for unvaccinated people.
Italy: Approves COVID-19 vaccination for 5-11 year olds.
Economic Recovery
Inflation: Pew finds inflation is causing hardship for 45% of U.S. households
Economic Mobility in America: A State-of-the-Art Primer: Via Scott Winship at AEI.
The Economy Is Getting Use The Pandemic: Via Axios
Resources
5 Mistakes to Avoid When Spending COVID-Relief Funds: Marguerite Roza in EdWeek
Spending in a way that creates a disruptive fiscal cliff
Deploying funds inequitably across schools
Issuing problematic procurement contracts that come back to haunt leaders
Failing to make sure the school district community sees and values investments
Investing without demonstrating real results for students
Politics Outweighed COVID Severity in College Reopening Decisions: Inside Higher Ed covers a new study.
"State political factors were a stronger factor for four-year public institutions than for four-year private or community colleges, while county political preferences had a stronger effect on four-year private and two-year public institutions."
EduRecoveryHub: The Collaborative for Student Success, the Center on Reinventing Public Education and the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University are launching a joint effort to collect and display state-by-state initiatives in a Education Recovery Hub.
They will publicly surface promising education recovery strategies and encourage smart investment of resources to best serve students and families. More details here.
Khan Academy Wants to Make 'Mastery Learning' Mainstream. Will Partnering With Schools Help?: Via EdSurge News
Schools Need Support to Reinvent Themselves. Will Philanthropy Step Up to Help?: Via New Schools
Schools are Back in Person, but Quarantines, Health Concerns Have Students Missing More Class: Via Chalkbeat.
Where Is The Comma In "God Rest Ye Merry, Gentlemen" Supposed To Go?: Come for the Christmas carol, stay for the punctuation lesson.