COVID-19 Policy Update #400
Thursday 12/16
A few milestones tonight. First, it’s the 400th update which is a little insane (and exhausting) to think about. I know one of our collective challenges is making sense of things given confusing and at times conflicting information, particularly with the pandemic fatigue we’re all feeling right now. I hope these updates offer some situational awareness and help inform your ongoing work. I’m grateful not only that you read them, but also for the chance to share with others the important resources, studies, and initiatives your organizations are producing.
And second, it’s my birthday! So tonight’s update will be brief as I have some celebrating to attend to.
All the best,
—John
Top Three
CDC Panel Recommends Pfizer, Moderna Vaccines Over J&J: Citing increasing evidence that the company’s shots trigger a rare blood clot disorder now linked to dozens of cases and at least nine deaths in the last year, the NYT reports. More via the AP:
"The strange clotting problem has caused nine confirmed deaths after J&J vaccinations — while the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines don’t come with that risk and also appear to be more effective."
"It’s an unusual move and the CDC’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, must decide whether to accept the panel’s advice."
"The risk of Covid-19 of course is much higher than the risk observed post-vaccination and Covid-19 cases continue to rise during this holiday season,” said Dr. Penny Heaton, a Johnson & Johnson executive.
Stat's Helen Branswell has a great thread covering the meeting.
The CDC’s Flawed Case for Wearing Masks in School: David Zweig in The Atlantic
"What data do exist have been interpreted into guidance in many different ways. The World Health Organization, for example, does not recommend masks for children under age 6. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recommends against the use of masks for any children in primary school."
"On September 28, during a White House briefing, Walensky brought up the 3.5 multiplier again; then she tweeted it that afternoon. In mid-October, with the school year in full swing, Walensky brought up the same statistic one more time."
"But the Arizona study at the center of the CDC’s back-to-school blitz turns out to have been profoundly misleading. “You can’t learn anything about the effects of school mask mandates from this study,” Jonathan Ketcham, a public-health economist at Arizona State University, told me. His view echoed the assessment of eight other experts who reviewed the research, and with whom I spoke for this article"
"Yet the study’s methodology and data set appear to have significant flaws. The trouble begins with the opening lines of the paper, where the authors say they evaluated the association between school mask policies and school-associated COVID-19 outbreaks “during July 15–August 31, 2021.”
"After reviewing school calendars and speaking with several school administrators in Maricopa and Pima Counties, I found that only a small proportion of the schools in the study were open at any point during July. Some didn’t begin class until August 10; others were open from July 19 or July 21. That means students in the latter group of schools had twice as much time—six weeks instead of three weeks—in which to develop a COVID outbreak"
America Is Not Ready for Omicron: Writes Ed Yong in The Atlantic
"Will the new and rapidly spreading variant overwhelm the U.S. health-care system? The question is moot because the system is already overwhelmed, in a way that is affecting all patients, COVID or otherwise. “The level of care that we’ve come to expect in our hospitals no longer exists,” Lowe said."
"First, the bad news: In terms of catching the virus, everyone should assume that they are less protected than they were two months ago. As a crude shorthand, assume that Omicron negates one previous immunizing event—either an infection or a vaccine dose."
"But someone who’s been boosted has the same ballpark level of protection against Omicron infection as a vaccinated-but-unboosted person did against Delta."
"The extra dose not only raises a recipient’s level of antibodies but also broadens their range, giving them better odds of recognizing the shape of even Omicron’s altered spike."
"People who thought that they wouldn’t have to worry about infection this winter if they had their booster do still have to worry about infection with Omicron,” Trevor Bedford, a virologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, told me. “I’ve been going to restaurants and movies, and now with Omicron, that will change.”
"Omicron is spreading so quickly that a small proportion of severe cases could still flood hospitals."
"People in rich countries are getting their booster six times faster than those in low-income countries are getting their first shot. Unless the former seriously commits to vaccinating the world—not just donating doses, but allowing other countries to manufacture and disseminate their own supplies—“it’s going to be a very expensive wild-goose chase until the next variant."
Omicron
Andy Slavitt: "Omicron will peak in the US in the third week in January according to a consensus of 10 scientists we interviewed." Rest of the thread.
Not All Tests Accurately Detect Omicron: Fauci at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce today, "We're getting preliminary information that not all of the diagnostic tests will be accurate with omicron. Many of the commonly used ones appear to pick up and detect omicron quite well. But we're hearing and we're in the process of doing large screening to determine which of these point of care rapid tests still maintain their accuracy of diagnosis. Clearly there are some that do. We're trying to find out those that don't reflect an accurate result."
Omicron Infects 70 Times Faster Than Previous COVID Strains: Study
South Africa: Update from the FT: "Deaths still climbing at same pace as past waves, but based on slowdown in cases we can be sure deaths will not get close to Delta peak."
Federal
White House: President Biden nominated LaWanda Toney for assistant secretary for communications and outreach at the U.S. Department of Education.
Build Back Better:
"Senate Democrats have all but thrown in the towel on the Build Back Better Act for now. Could that change? Sure. But it doesn’t seem likely," Punchbowl reports.
“The arbiter of Senate rules has rejected Democrats’ third immigration proposal to provide temporary deportation protections and work permits to millions of immigrants living in the U.S. illegally,” the WSJ reports.
COVID-19 Research
Cases Jump 40%: The country is reporting more than 120,000 new cases a day on average — a 40% increase from two weeks ago, and 70% more than when cases stopped falling in early November.
Kids Talk About Getting Vaccinated: Via NBC.
Why UK Has Been Less Keen Than US to Give Covid Vaccine to Children: Via the Guardian.
Depression, Anxiety, and Happiness in Dog Owners During the Pandemic: Study.
"Dog owners reported having significantly more social support available to them compared to potential dog owners, and their depression scores were also lower, compared to potential dog owners."
"Our results suggest that dog ownership may have provided people with a stronger sense of social support, which in turn may have helped buffer some of the negative psychological impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic."
I asked Teddy to offer his thoughts but he just complained.
State
Arizona: Mike McShane: "Microschooling’s Growth In Arizona Is No Surprise" and related MI paper.
DC: Survey by Washington Teachers' Union and EmpowerEd found 47% of respondents were either seriously or somewhat seriously considering leaving their roles.
Georgia: Two Clayton County Public Schools switch to virtual learning due to quarantined staff.
Illinois: 5 things we’ve learned about COVID in Chicago schools, via Chalkbeat.
Louisiana: Attorney General Jeff Landry and a Republican state lawmaker filed a lawsuit seeking to block Gov. John Bel Edwards from adding the COVID-19 vaccines to the list of shots students are required to receive to attend schools and universities.
International
Canada: Nearly one out of every 100 Ontario public schools are now closed due to coronavirus.
Economic Recovery
Kraft Will Pay You $20 to Not Make Cheesecake This Holiday Season Amid Cream Cheese Shortage: Weird twist in the supply chain saga.
Resources
Clear Will Call an Uber So You Make Your Flight: Via Axios.
Unprecedented and Unmasked: A CRPE analysis of how district policy documents frame special education during the COVID–19 crisis.
More Black Families Are Homeschooling Their Children, Citing the Pandemic and Racism: Via NPR.
Educators Inspired Amid Covid: Via WSJ, "The $1 million STOP Award goes to a museum that became a school."
AFT:
Calls for passage of the Educator's for America Act to address teacher shortages.
Is launching a campaign to place 1 million diverse titles in students’ hands.
Schools Face Fears of ‘Critical Race Theory’ as They Scale Up Social-Emotional Learning: Via EdWeek.
Get Ready: For puppy drums.