Top Three
Build Back Later:
Sen. Manchin said on Sunday that he cannot support the Build Back Better package.
The White House issued a rare, blistering statement accusing Manchin of breaking his word with Biden. More via Axios.
“While staff drafted language addressing Manchin’s specific concerns — on inflation, climate provisions and how the plan was paid for — Biden specifically instructed them to add that if Manchin stood by his comments, he had violated his word to the President.”
As a reminder, Sen. Manchin signed an agreement with Sen. Schumer back in July outlining what he could support - so none of this is really all that surprising. More here.
“Sen. Manchin last week made the White House a concrete counteroffer for its spending bill, saying he would accept a $1.8 trillion package that included universal prekindergarten for 10 years, an expansion of Obamacare, and hundreds of billions of dollars to combat climate change,” the Washington Post reports.
"Manchin’s counteroffer, for instance, included funding universal pre-K for 10 years, rather than partially financing the measure for a few years. Manchin has long been public about his support for prekindergarten education."
"On climate change, Manchin backed supporting a scaled-back version of what Democrats had sought — with spending between $500 billion and $600 billion."
Steve Clemmons offers this nugget:
"Manchin reportedly suggested March or April as the new deadline; there was no pushback from the White House, which committed to putting out a statement the next day that all parties had agreed to the delay."
"Joe and Joe were pulling in the same direction. There would be no BBB gifts under the Christmas tree — but no one would get coal in their stockings, either. Both sides were congenial, and both agreed not to trash each other, not to throw around White House chief of staff Ron Klain’s name, or the president’s or presidential counselor Steve Ricchetti’s — and the White House would refrain from finger-pointing as a way to keep the process constructive."
"But then – bang! – the White House released a statement blaming Manchin for the delay. It tried to strike a positive tone about the future, but it targeted Manchin specifically and alone."
Sen. Schumer says, "We are going to vote on a revised version of the House-passed Build Back Better Act – and we will keep voting on it until we get something done.”
“Sen. Manchin and President Joe Biden spoke Sunday night after a major blowup in negotiations around the president’s domestic agenda,” Politico reports. “The conversation ended with a sense that negotiations would, in fact, resume around the Build Back Better Act in some form in the new year.“
"Rep. Suzan DelBene (D., Wash.), chairwoman of the moderate New Democrats coalition, said Sunday that the party should choose a smaller set of programs to fund in the bill, listing the child tax credit, ACA subsidies and climate programs as worthy goals. Her statement was tweeted by White House officials, including White House chief of staff Ron Klain."
We Learned Our Lesson Last Year: Do Not Close Schools: Joseph Allen in the NYT:
"The argument for keeping schools open rests on two constants ever since the Covid pandemic began: The risk of severe outcomes to kids from coronavirus infection is low, and the risks to kids from being out of school are high."
"As the American Academy of Pediatrics stated in a report released this month, “The available data indicate that Covid-19-associated hospitalization and death is uncommon in children."
"The latest data from South Africa for the week ending Dec. 12 shows that school-age children (5-to-19-year-olds) had the lowest hospitalization of any age group, and even with the Omicron uptick, the hospitalization rate is four to six per 100,000 — higher than one in 100,000 but still quite low. The latest data from Britain is similar. As of Dec. 12, the hospitalization rate for 5-to-14-year-olds is 1.4 per 100,000 — the lowest hospitalization rate of any age group."
"As pressures to close schools again grow, we should recognize that the patterns of school closures and reopenings last year were defined by racial inequality. Black and Hispanic students were twice as likely as white students to be remote and were twice as likely to have no live access to a teacher. This disparity persisted into the spring of 2021 as schools reopened: Whereas 2 percent of majority white districts stayed closed, 18 percent of majority Black schools stayed remote, and nearly one in four majority Hispanic schools stayed closed."
"We also need to mandate vaccination for all adults in schools and day cares."
"Schools should address ventilation and filtration shortfalls through basic measures that can be put in place quickly.
"We need to stop quarantining entire classrooms when there is a positive case and instead establish so-called test-to-stay policies as the default."
"We should make masking in schools voluntary rather than mandatory."
Long COVID in Kids: New study:
"To conclude: let’s stop the scaremongering and get the public messaging right. The vast majority of kids with COVID19 will recover completely, but we do need better tools to identify (and resources to investigate & support) the small proportion of kids with persistent symptoms"
Omicron
WHO: The World Health Organization's chief scientist said it was too early to conclude the Omicron variant was milder than other coronavirus strains, saying it could still make enough people sick to "overburden" healthcare systems.
There’s One City That Can Show Us Our Omicron Future: Dr. Jay Varma in the NYT
"The variant is causing a dramatic surge of cases in the unvaccinated and vaccinated alike and will almost certainly become the dominant strain in weeks — a process that took the Delta variant months."
"Public acceptance of Covid disruptions, like business and school closings, has waned. Combine that with a highly infectious variant, and policymakers are left with a limited number of options."
"The message must be crystal clear: In the time of Omicron, being “up-to-date” may only delay, not prevent, you from being infected, but it will protect you from becoming severely ill and help your community avoid running out of hospital beds."
"So-called “test-to-stay” policies should apply to all people who learn that a close contact has tested positive for Covid. Instead of requiring people to both stay home and be monitored, public health agencies can allow people to return to school or work if they do not have symptoms and test negative for the virus initially and periodically over the next seven days."
"Most important, prepare yourself and your loved ones for massive disruptions again. Unlike in 2020, when local governments ordered businesses to close, expect to see what’s happening now in New York City, where many restaurants, bars and offices are now closing because they lack a healthy staff to run them, not because of a government lockdown."
School Closings Surge 82%: Via Bloomberg, "There were 646 Covid-related school closings for this week, up from 356 the week before, according to Burbio.
‘It Is Embarrassing’: CDC struggles to track Covid cases as Omicron looms.
"Continuing gaps in the CDC’s data collection program, which almost two years into the pandemic still relies on state health departments who use a mix of often incompatible and outdated state systems to identify cases, impedes the nation’s understanding of where and how fast the virus is spreading, according to more than a dozen state and federal officials involved in tracking cases."
UK:
Reports 91,743 new coronavirus cases, up 68% from last week
Number of people hospitalized with Omicron rises to 129, up from 104 yesterday, with 14 deaths, up from 12.
Via Scott Gottlieb, "So far, the data out of the UK does not suggest that Omicron is displacing Delta but rather, it may be spreading alongside it. This will be important to watch. Graphic h/t Morgan Stanley."
Omicron May Be Less Severe in South Africa. That May Not Be the Case for the U.S.: Via NPR:
Moderna Covid Vaccine Booster Increases Antibodies Against Omicron 37-Fold: Moderna in Barrons.
UNICEF: Statement, "Even as Omicron variant takes hold, school closures must be a measure of last resort."
Fauci Thinks Schools Can Stay Open: "Right now we can keep the children in school safely,” Fauci said. “We are trying as best as we possibly can to keep the schools open for the reasons that you just gave correctly of the deleterious effects of having to close the schools down.”
Most Vaccines Won’t Prevent Infection From Omicron: Via NYT:
“A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant."
"The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic.”
Vice President Harris: A bit of a dust up over the weekend with this statement: "We didn’t see Delta coming. I think most scientists did not — upon whose advice and direction we have relied — didn’t see Delta coming. “We didn’t see Omicron coming”
A number of epidemiologists on Twitter said they did issue warnings and even participated in briefings with the Admin.
A staffer later sought to clarify the statement.
Federal
ED: Is seeking comments on its draft guidance, "Impact of COVID-19 on 2021-2022 Accountability Systems." Comments are due Jan. 16.
IES:
Published updated data from the School Pulse Panel survey.
New Research Networks Competitions and Virtual Technical Assistance
White House: A lot of debate today over this messaging from the White House:
"Our vaccines work against Omicron, especially for people who get booster shots when they are eligible. If you are vaccinated, you could test positive. But if you do get COVID, your case will likely be asymptomatic or mild."
"We are intent on not letting Omicron disrupt work and school for the vaccinated. You’ve done the right thing, and we will get through this."
"For the unvaccinated, you’re looking at a winter of severe illness and death for yourselves, your families, and the hospitals you may soon overwhelm."
Puppy of the United State: The President welcomed a new puppy to the White House.
COVID-19 Research
Kids’ Vaccine Safety, by the Numbers: Via Emily Oster.
What Happens When Students Remove Masks?: Via Boston Globe.
"At least five schools in Massachusetts — including Westborough’s high school and middle school, Norwell High School, and King Philip Regional High School in Wrentham — have allowed vaccinated students to unmask. Most of the school districts have not seen significant increases in COVID cases among students or staff, state data show."
"Erin Bromage, an immunology professor at University of Massachusetts Dartmouth who advises some schools in Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island, said students can safely — and should — remove masks if their schools have proper air filtration, ventilation, and surveillance testing of students. Masks should be required during COVID surges in schools and communities, he said, but should come off afterwards."
Booster Value: Thanks to Emily Oster for flagging this MA report showing the value of 2 doses of a vaccine and a booster.
Whiplash on U.S. Vaccine Mandate Leaves Employers ‘Totally Confused’: Via NYT
"No company has been spared the whirlwind of changes in the last week, set off by the spike in Covid cases that have, in some instances, cut into their work forces."
"Then on Friday, an appeals court lifted the legal block on the vaccine rule, though appeals to the ruling were immediately filed, leaving the rule’s legal status up in the air. On Saturday, hours after the appeals court ruling, the Labor Department’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration urged employers to start working to get in compliance."
"But OSHA also gave employers some leeway, pushing back full enforcement of the rule until February, recognizing that for all its best intentions the rollout of the rule has been muddled."
Novavax: Granted EUA by the EU.
State
California: A low-income, rural district was already all-in on technology, which helped it weather the pandemic.
DC: Reinstates mask mandate, schools to close for self-test pickup.
Maryland:
Hogan says he is not considering lockdowns due to covid-19 case spikes, wants schools open
Gov. Hogan says Prince George's return to virtual learning is ‘terrible mistake.'
Virginia: Gov.-elect Youngkin names Aimee Rogstad Guidera as his choice for Virginia education secretary. Congrats Aimee!!!
International
France: A panel of advisers has recommended that France begin vaccinating children aged 5 to 11.
Netherlands: Enters strict lockdown amid Omicron surge.Schools and universities will shut until January 9.
Resources
Zach Eckert: Unexpectedly passed away. Statement from ExcelinEd.
Sen. Isakson: Has passed away.
Advancing Comprehensive School Mental Health Systems: A Guide for State Education Agencies: A new resource from CCSSO and the National Center for School Mental Health outlines five key steps state education agencies can take to support a comprehensive approach to school mental health, alongside state examples and relevant resources.
Schools Use Therapy-based Programs for ‘Overwhelmed’ Kids: Via the AP.
Drove Past Rotherham's House This Weekend: And he really went all out this year with his Christmas decor.