COVID-19 Policy Update #500
Wednesday 5/18
It’s hard to believe this is the 500th Covid Update. As many of you know, this endeavor was somewhat of an accident. In March 2020 I sent out a daily email shared with philanthropic leaders mainly for information sharing purposes and to help inform and coordinate responses. Others asked to be added to the distribution list so I moved it over Substack where you’re reading it now along with other state Covid directors, non-profit leaders, White House staff, and investors.
A few stats:
The updates have covered more than 18,000 articles, reports, and studies.
The number of subscribers has grown 60% since October.
Average open rates increased from approximately 40% last year to over 54% this year.
The most clicked on link in every issue is the last one, providing empirical proof that Dogs > Covid.
My hope is these updates are helpful in navigating the complexities we’re facing during the pandemic. I take a bit of the Ted Lasso approach to all of this which is to be curious, not judgmental. Sometimes the best way to make sense of confusing and conflicting information is just to wrestle with it while being intentional about seeking out other interpretations. That feels important now more than ever given how polarized the world has become.
I’ll share some additional reflections later, but for now I just want to thank you for taking the time to read these and for the important work you’re leading throughout the country.
—John
Top Three
Younger Children Most Affected by Covid Lockdowns: The Guardian reports on new research out of the UK.
"Aggressive behaviour such as biting and hitting, feelings of struggling in class or being overwhelmed around large groups of children were among the difficulties reported by teachers during interviews."
"Claudine Bowyer-Crane, of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, said the findings were worrying: “Not only does it suggest that children who started reception in 2020 are struggling in the specific learning areas of literacy and maths but also that a smaller proportion of these children are achieving a good level of development.”
"Teachers who spoke to the researchers said the disruption had left some infants with “low self-esteem and confidence”, and that more children than previously “feel overwhelmed” by learning."
Health Officials and Scientists Are Debating Plans to Pair Coronavirus and Flu Vaccinations in the Fall: Via the NYT.
"As the coronavirus morphs into a stubborn and unpredictable facet of everyday life, scientists and federal health officials are converging on a new strategy for immunizing Americans: a vaccination campaign this fall, perhaps with doses that are finely tuned to combat the version of the virus expected to be in circulation."
"The plan would borrow heavily from the playbook for distributing annual flu shots, and may become the template for arming Americans against the coronavirus in the years to come."
"But some experts question how well a renewed vaccination push would be received by a pandemic-weary public, whether the doses can be rolled out quickly enough to reach the people who need them most — and whether most Americans need additional shots at all."
Covid Supplemental: "U.S. faces unnecessary Covid deaths if Congress fails to pass funding bill, top health official warns."
"Dr. Ashish Jha, the new White House Covid response coordinator, said the U.S. will not have enough money to provide vaccines for all Americans in the fall without money from Congress."
“We have to plan for a scenario where we don’t get any more resources from Congress. I think we would see a lot of unnecessary loss if that were to happen,” Jha said."
Covid-19 Research
Under 5s: CDC has provided a Planning Guide for vaccine programs ahead of a potential vaccine rollout for under 5s but also gives a sense of timing:
"Depending on FDA confirmation of the VRBPAC agenda for the June 8th meeting, including which product(s) will be discussed, the pre-EUA threshold is expected to be available for ordering either at the end of May or early June."
BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 Escape Antibodies Elicited by Omicron Infection: Study
"Together, our results indicate that Omicron can evolve mutations to specifically evade humoral immunity elicited by BA.1 infection."
"The continuous evolution of Omicron poses great challenges to SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity and suggests that BA.1-derived vaccine boosters may not be ideal for achieving broad-spectrum protection."
The World Is Still Vulnerable to Pandemics: Governments around the world are no better prepared today to address a new global disease threat than they were just before the coronavirus outbreak began in late 2019, a World Health Organization panel concluded in a new report.
How Can Covid-19 Affect the Human Brain? Via the FT.
"Dr S. Andrew Josephson, chair of neurology at the University of California, San Francisco, and editor in chief of JAMA Neurology, said people with even mild Covid described symptoms, such as mental fatigue, that might be related to the brain. “We’re seeing more and more studies that show changes in the brain that may be associated with it,” he said."
“Covid’s effects on the brain are real — some people have very discrete, defined conditions and some have things that we don’t understand quite as well,” said Spudich. “The problem is that there are so many other social factors, pressures, stresses related to these pandemic times that it definitely muddies the waters.”
Third of Americans Say The Pandemic Is Over: A new Axios/Ipsos poll finds that 31% of Americans believe the coronavirus pandemic is over.
Perception of the pandemic varied widely across party lines, with 59% of Republicans, 27% of independents and 10% of Democrats agreeing the pandemic is over.
Those that are unvaccinated are more likely to say the pandemic is over (55%) than those that are vaccinated (22%).
On-campus COVID-19 Measures Couldn't Contain Omicron: "A study assessing Cornell University's COVID-19 surveillance and vaccination programs during the Omicron variant surge suggests that vaccination protected against severe infection, but it and other mitigation measures—including mass testing—didn't prevent rapid viral transmission."
Health Officials Say a Third of People Live in High Risk Areas and Should Consider Masks Indoors: Via NYT.
"Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the director of the CDC, said that federal data showed the U.S. seven-day average of hospital admissions from Covid-19 rose about 20 percent over the previous week. About 3,000 people a day were now being admitted with Covid, she said, although death rates, a lagging indicator, remain low."
State
Alabama: "Alabama can't fumble the ball on $3 billion of COVID school relief," writes Corinn O’Brien
A+ COVID School Spending Tracker with state and district breakouts.
Arizona: Two more bills restricting responses to the coronavirus pandemic are heading to Gov. Ducey’s desk, including one that would impact the ability of future state leaders to respond to another airborne-spreading disease and a second blocking the state from ever requiring schoolchildren to get a COVID-19 vaccine.
California: Can college courses for high school students lure families back to LAUSD?
Louisiana: Students won't be required to show proof of a COVID-19 vaccination to attend school next year, Gov. John Bel Edwards said, backtracking on a plan that faced steep opposition from GOP lawmakers.
Maryland: "As schools across Maryland deal with increasing COVID-19 cases and outbreaks, it’s raising concerns for parents."
"WJZ obtained a letter to families from the Fort Garrison School Principal, Dr. Hope Baier, who says 5% of the school’s students and staff have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 14 days."
“I feel very unsafe sending my child to school,” said Alissa Abramson-Densky, whose third-grade daughter has asthma."
Missouri: Attorney General Eric Schmitt is preparing for a new round of lawsuits challenging school mask rules as districts reinstate orders in the face of an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
Pennsylvania: "The Philadelphia School District announced it would allow those who have been exposed to COVID-19 but show no symptoms to stay in school if they mask for 10 days, isolate and test for the virus if they begin to feel sick."
International
China: Students at Peking University, one of China’s most elite colleges, have demonstrated against strict Covid lockdown measures.
Economic Recovery
Heartland Summit: Sets stage for economic growth.
Housing Demand and Remote Work: NBER paper.
"What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8% national house price increase over this period."
Gasoline Tops $4 a Gallon in Every State: “Gasoline pump prices have risen above $4 a gallon in all states in the US for the first time ever as the last holdouts — Kansas, Oklahoma and Georgia — saw prices rise overnight,” Bloomberg reports.
Innovation: Your Launchpad Out of the COVID-19 Crisis: Via McKinsey. "To put the organization on a new growth trajectory requires three actions:"
Reallocating toward the future—place bets, backed by sufficient funds and people, on emerging profit pools while reassessing legacy decisions.
Embedding flexibility—reorganize around new, crisis-inspired ways of working.
Hacking processes—focus on outcomes rather than activities to increase speed.
Resources
The Pandemic Changed the Plans of Many 2022 High School Graduates: Via Bruno Manno.
"Nearly 1 in 3 seniors, or 28%, from the 2022 class changed their post-high school plans since the pandemic began, up from 18% in a previous survey in spring 2020."
"3 out of 4, or 74%, of the 2022 seniors report that they want to go to college, though they’re now facing new challenges. A 12th-grade white girl wrote, “Basically, COVID has just ruined my whole life plans. Now, I won’t be able to go to college or get that job because I don’t want to be vaccinated.”
"Fewer 2022 seniors say they participated in career counseling and college financial counseling than in 2019, with significant drops for those who are Hispanic, multi-racial, boys, and in rural schools."
The Data Labs Playbook: The Beeck Center for Social Impact + Innovation at Georgetown University and NGA released a resource to help state policymakers use data when developing innovative projects to benefit their residents.
Making the Metaverse: What it is, how it will be built, and why it matters. Good, long essay by Nick Clegg.
What Schools Can Do Now to Ensure Their New Technology Lasts Beyond the COVID Cash Boom: Via EdWeek.
This Is Us: Quite the episode last night. I loved the intersection and juxtaposition of Marcus' storyline as well as this reflection from William:
"The way I see it, if something makes you sad when it ends, it must have been pretty wonderful when it was happening."
"Truth be told, I always felt it a bit lazy to just think of the world as sad, because so much of it is. Because everything ends. Everything dies."
"But if you step back, if you step back and look at the whole picture, if you're brave enough to allow yourself the gift of a really wide perspective, if you do that, you'll see that the end is not sad, Rebecca. It's just the start of the next incredibly beautiful thing."
Thank you John. Your level-headed reporting has helped me navigate an avalanche of information. Looking forward to the next 500!