Top Three
Condition of Education: NCES released the The Condition of Education 2022.
"Total public elementary and secondary school enrollment for prekindergarten through grade 12 students declined 3% between fall 2019 and fall 2020."
"This was the largest single-year decline in total public school enrollment since 1943."
"Public charter school enrollment more than doubled between fall 2009 and fall 2019."
"Undergraduate enrollment was declining before the pandemic (a decrease of 0.9 million students, or 5%, over a period of 10 years between 2009 and 2019), but during the pandemic it decreased by 0.7 million students (or 4%) between 2019 and 2020 alone."
North Carolina Teacher Survey: "North Carolina teachers say their students have fallen behind academically and have greater social, emotional and mental health needs during the pandemic, according to a statewide survey."
"A plurality of 36% said their students are at least a year behind academically, followed by 23% saying their students are at least six months behind."
"29% of teachers said they spent a quarter of their instructional time reteaching last school year’s materials."
“One of the biggest eye-opening pieces of the survey is the need for social-emotional learning,” said Alessandro Montanari, assistant director of district and regional support at the state Department of Public Instruction. “That is clearly evident in the responses. We see that clearly as well in all the questions that have to deal with bullying and physical conflict with students.”
Third of Schools Have Students in Quarantine "About 30% of public schools reported having a student in quarantine during the April collection window (compared to 31% in March) according to IES.”
Federal
Covid Supplemental:
“The Senate’s bipartisan $10 billion Covid funding deal will need to be totally renegotiated, aides and senators expect, because some of the money laid out to pay for it has already been spent,” Politico reports.
“But don’t count on the Senate to pick up the scraps. The aide said Senate Democrats are not going to take the lead to figure out how to pay for the Covid aid package for a third time.”
GAO: "National Strategy Needed to Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Digital Divide."
"Federal broadband efforts are fragmented and overlapping, with more than 100 programs administered by 15 agencies."
"Many programs have broadband as their main purpose, and several overlap because they can be used for the purpose of broadband deployment."
"Despite numerous programs and federal investment $44 billion from 2015 through 2020, millions of Americans still lack broadband, and communities with limited resources may be most affected by fragmentation."
Treasury: "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNN's Wolf Blitzer yesterday when asked if it was a mistake to downplay the risk of inflation."
"Well, look, I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. ... [T]here have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that I ... at the time didn't fully understand. But we recognize that now."
Covid-19 Research
Paxlovid: "The FDA rebuked Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla’s proposed solution to reports that some patients experienced a relapse of COVID-19 symptoms after treatment with the company's antiviral Paxlovid."
"After reports said some patients who took Paxlovid rebounded and started feeling symptoms again, the CEO told Bloomberg that patients can take another course, “like you do with antibiotics.”
"The FDA isn't on board with the suggestion. "There is no evidence of benefit at this time for a longer course of treatment … or repeating a treatment course of Paxlovid in patients with recurrent COVID-19 symptoms following completion of a treatment course,” John Farley, M.D., director of the Office of Infectious Diseases, said in a post."
Vaccine Versus Variants Matchup: Via Axios.
"Efforts to update COVID vaccines can't seem to keep up with changes in the virus itself."
"Preliminary data suggests the most recent Omicron subvariants to emerge are significantly different than the original version that began spreading late last year."
"Keeping up with a virus that is evolving this quickly is inherently in tension with collecting the data traditionally required to make big regulatory decisions."
Boosters: Canada authorizes Pfizer COVID-19 booster for 16 and 17-year-olds.
Third mRNA Shot Offers Best Covid-19 Immunity: Bloomberg on a new study.
"An mRNA booster following an initial course of two shots of the same type is the most effective way to prevent non-severe Covid infections, according to an analysis of studies published Wednesday in the BMJ medical journal. Adding a third mRNA shot to other primary vaccination regimens raises protection to almost the same level."
Children and Covid: "Two in five parents of children under 18 say at least one of their children has contracted COVID-19" according to a new YouGov/Economist survey.
Why Masks Work, but Mandates Haven’t: David Leonhardt in the NYT.
"The evidence suggests that broad mask mandates have not done much to reduce Covid caseloads over the past two years. Today, mask rules may do even less than in the past, given the contagiousness of current versions of the virus. And successful public health campaigns rarely involve a divisive fight over a measure unlikely to make a big difference."
"In U.S. cities where mask use has been more common, Covid has spread at a similar rate as in mask-resistant cities. Mask mandates in schools also seem to have done little to reduce the spread. Hong Kong, despite almost universal mask-wearing, recently endured one of the world’s worst Covid outbreaks."
"In the current stage of the pandemic, there are less divisive measures that are more effective than mask mandates. Booster shots are widely available. A drug that can further protect the immunocompromised, known as Evusheld, is increasingly available. So are post-infection treatments, like Paxlovid, that make Covid less severe."
"The country is probably never going to come to a consensus on masks. They have become yet another source of political polarization. Democrats are more likely to wear masks than Republicans, and Democrats who identify as “very liberal” are more likely to support mandates."
"Fortunately, the scientific evidence points to a reasonable compromise. Because masks work and mandates often don’t, people can make their own decisions. Anybody who wants to wear a snug, high-quality mask can do so and will be less likely to contract Covid."
"If anything, that approach — one-way masking — is consistent with what hospitals have long done, as Doron, the Tufts epidemiologist, points out. Patients, including those sick with infectious diseases, typically have not worn masks, but doctors and nurses have. “One-way masking is how we have always used them,” she wrote."
Mask Wearing in Community Settings Reduces SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: Study.
"We find that mask wearing is associated with a notable reduction in transmission. Our evidence shows that factors other than mandates must have contributed to the worldwide uptake of mask wearing in 2020. In situations where mandates are unlikely to have a large effect on uptake—for example, because voluntary wearing is already high—policy makers may be able to use other levers to increase wearing quantity and quality."
Revisiting Pediatric COVID-19 Cases in Counties With and Without School Mask Requirements: New study.
"Our study replicates a highly cited CDC study showing a negative association between school mask mandates and pediatric SARS-CoV-2 cases. We then extend the study using a larger sample of districts and a longer time interval, employing almost six times as much data as the original study. We examine the relationship between mask mandates and per-capita pediatric cases, using multiple regression to control for differences across school districts."
"Replicating the CDC study shows similar results; however, incorporating a larger sample and longer period showed no significant relationship between mask mandates and case rates. These results persisted when using regression methods to control for differences across districts."
"Interpretation: School districts that choose to mandate masks are likely to be systematically different from those that do not in multiple, often unobserved, ways."
Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Cut by Sharing Doctors’ Positive Views: "When people in the Czech Republic learned that a high number of doctors intended to take a covid-19 vaccine, they were slightly more likely to get the vaccine themselves." More via Nature.
COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptability and Financial Incentives: Among Unhoused People in Los Angeles County: a Three-Stage Field Survey
"After implementing a financial incentive program, 97.4% of participants who indicated interest in vaccination were vaccinated that day; the financial incentive was the most cited reason for vaccine readiness."
State
DC: "National Airport Is Renaming Gates And Terminals. Here’s What Travelers Need To Know."
"Terminals A and B/C will be renamed Terminals 1 and 2. Gates will have a concourse letter A through E added before the gate number."
Because THAT'S what needed to be changed at DCA....
Florida: Third-grade reading scores remain stagnant after COVID-19.
Massachusetts: "Will no longer provide COVID-19 testing to schools in the fall, frustrating educators and public health experts who say continued support is necessary."
Michigan: "Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s proposal to spend $280 million dollars to support tutoring for Michigan students has support from teachers’ unions."
Ohio: Hamilton Schools facing budget shortfall in 2024, officials say.
"One of the main reasons is the dissolving away of federal and state COVID-19 relief monies given to Hamilton — and all other Ohio public school systems — starting in 2020 to help offset the costs of operating during the pandemic."
"The projected budget shortfall will increase to $13.8 million in 2025 and then 19.7 million in 2026."
Pennsylvania: Erie County Department of Health announces air filtration project for school classrooms.
International
Brazil: Via Bloomberg. "Brazil Has a Model for Reversing the Pandemic’s Toll on Schools."
"An emphasis on full-day schooling is helping Pernambuco, an educational outperformer, to get children back on track."
"Among the successful programs here is “busca ativa,” or active search, which tracks down and brings back missing students, using mothers or people within the community. It’s a model that UNICEF and municipal leaders, normally responsible for younger schoolchildren, have used nationally."
China: Shanghai starts coming back to life as COVID lockdown eases. "Schools will partially reopen on a voluntary basis."
UK: "Take-up of the government’s flagship tutoring programme is so slow that all current secondary pupils in England will have left school by the time the Conservatives finally deliver on their education catch-up promises, Labour has said."
Economic Recovery
Economic Hurricane: "JPMorgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon told investors Wednesday to brace for an economic "hurricane," pointing to the Fed and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.... We just don't know if it is a minor one, or Superstorm Sandy."
What America’s Next Recession Will Look Like: Via the Economist.
"A mild downturn may be followed by a painfully prolonged recovery."
"Three-quarters of chief executives of Fortune 500 companies are braced for growth to go negative before the end of 2023."
"A better way to think about a recession, if it comes, is to look at America as it is today. Consider three different facets: the real economy, the financial system and the central bank. All three, working in concert, suggest that a recession would be relatively mild. Households and businesses’ balance-sheets are mostly strong. Risks in the financial system appear to be manageable. The Fed, for its part, has been too slow to respond to inflation, but the credibility it has built up over the past few decades means it can still fight an effective rearguard action. There is, however, a sting in the tail: when the recession ultimately ends, the consequences of the past few years of living dangerously with inflation may make for a sluggish recovery."
"Moreover, many households have larger-than-normal cash buffers thanks to the stimulus payments of the past two years, plus their reduced spending on travel, restaurants and the like at the height of the pandemic. Overall, Americans have excess savings of about $2trn (9% of gdp) compared with before covid. They have started to use some of this cash as living costs rise, but still retain a useful cushion."
"Reassuringly, many companies sought to lock in rock-bottom rates during the pandemic. In 2021 companies reduced debt coming due this year by about 27%, or $250bn, mainly by refinancing their existing debt at lower rates and for longer durations. That makes them less sensitive to an increase in interest rates."
"Put differently, the Fed is embarking on a journey with a clear destination (low inflation), an obvious vehicle (interest rates) but hazy guesses about how to get there (how high rates must go). It will know the correct path only by moving forward and seeing how the economy reacts."
"And with fiscal policy on the sidelines and monetary policy badly hobbled, the chances are that America would face a painfully slow recovery. After two years of focusing on high inflation, low growth may move back to centre-stage as the economy’s principal problem."
EU Inflation: "Inflation in the 19 countries of the eurozone soared to 8.1% in May from 7.4% in April, exceeding previous expectations."
Community Colleges and Employer Partnerships: Via New America.
Resources
Baby Formula Shortage Worsens:
“New data suggest that the U.S. baby-formula shortage is deepening, particularly hitting states in the South and the Southwest,” the WSJ reports.
“Ironically, Biden officials had originally thought this situation would be one they could get a firm grasp on quickly. While managing the inflation and supply chain issues killing his poll numbers was always going to be difficult, if not impossible, there was initially a sense in the party that the formula shortage was one Dems could fix in a reasonable amount of time...“But given the latest data, that confidence seems to have been misplaced.” Politico reports.
It's June!: Let's all walk-up to June with the same level of confidence (and moves) as this young man...