Top Three
Recession Fears: GDP fell at 0.9% annual rate in the second quarter fueling recession fears.
WSJ: "The U.S. economy shrank for a second quarter in a row—a common definition of recession—as businesses trimmed their inventories, the housing market buckled under rising interest rates, and high inflation took steam out of consumer spending."
"The official arbiter of recessions in the U.S. is the National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines one as a significant decline in economic activity, spread across the economy for more than a few months. Its Business Cycle Dating Committee considers factors including employment, output, retail sales and household income—and it usually doesn’t make a recession determination until long after the fact."
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession. “When you look at the economy, job creation is continuing, household finances remain strong, consumers are spending and businesses are growing,” she said during a news conference.
The White House makes the case for why we're not in a recession.
WSJ asks, "What Is a Recession and Are We in One Now?"
Josh calls it a bagel.
Tyton Survey of District Leaders and Spending of ESSER Funds: New results on pace of financial commitments and what funds are being spent on.
School Mask Mandates Return as Latest Coronavirus Variants Surge: Via the Washington Post.
"Meanwhile, it is unclear whether the CDC plans to issue more guidance for schools as they reopen.”
“A CDC spokeswoman declined to say. “We are constantly evaluating our guidance and as new science based evidence emerges necessary updates are made,” CDC spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said in a statement.”
“The most recent recommendations came in a CDC update from May."
Federal
Build Back Manchin: The news that shocked DC yesterday was that Senator Manchin and Senate Majority Schumer reached an agreement on a $740 billion reconciliation deal which includes $739 billion in new tax revenue along with $369 billion for climate issues and $64 billion for extending ACA subsidies.
CRFB's excellent summary.
Politico offers two bits of caution:
“Though Democrats on the Hill and at the White House are celebrating, there’s still the Sen. Kyrsten Sinema-sized hurdle they need to clear. She hasn’t publicly signed off just yet, and the bill includes some provisions she has previously told leadership were no-gos for her, like taxing carried interest.”
“How will moderate House Dems of the Josh Gottheimer variety react to the exclusion of the SALT deductions they sought to restore, which were make-or-break for them in last year’s talks?”
One additional challenge: House Democrats only have a 4 vote margin that goes down to 3 after Aug. 9 due to a special election. And as we've recently seen, Covid cases can sideline members which complicates votes. And it means they have to hold the entire coalition to pass the bill.
CHIPS+: Passed the House 243-187-1 and now heads to the President's desk for signature.
OSTP: The Commerce Committee approved Dr. Arati Prabhakar to be the Director of the White House OSTP.
Covid-19 Research
Pfizer: Starts mid-stage trial for vaccine targets both the original as well as the BA.2 Omicron subvariant.
Paxlovid Appears To Be Reaching the Americans Who Need It Least: Via the Economist:
"Instead, the drug may not be reaching those who need it most. The counties prescribing Paxlovid the most tend to have high vaccination rates and few comorbidities, such as diabetes. On average, people in these areas are unusually likely to survive covid even without Paxlovid’s help."
"Paxlovid is rare in counties that have low vaccination rates, and where many are poor and unhealthy. People with covid in these areas may be less likely to seek out and obtain the drug when it is effective, during the first five days of illness."
Studies Reveal Racial Disparities in Early COVID Vaccine Rollout: Via CIDRAP.
How Long Does Loss of Smell and Taste After Covid Last?: A meta analysis of 18 studies showing more than 5% have symptoms after 6 months.
State
DC: Inspector General report, "Certain Controls Designed by DCPS to Ensure the Availability and Equity of Distance Learning Activities Were Not Operating Effectively"
"We noted that at least 15,342 students did not log into Canvas due to lack of access to technology during Terms 1 and 2. Using 90 percent as a baseline, we calculated that 3,272 of 15,342 students experienced a lack of access to technology for 10 or more days. Therefore, these students should be considered chronically absent because they missed more than 10 percent of 89 school days."
"DCPS recorded 4,214 students per day (on average) as present, when the students did not log into LMS as required by DCPS attendance policy."
"During this audit, DCPS could not contact or provide information regarding the whereabouts of 644 of the 2,550 students."
"As a result, through FY 2020, DCPS spent approximately $3 million on staff salaries to eliminate opportunity gaps and interrupt institutional bias without measurable progress."
Economic Recovery
Census Bureau Releases COVID-19 Economic Brief: Via the Census.
Resources
On This Day: On Jul. 28, 1958, the LEGO brick patent was filed.
Seeing the Nuances Behind the Chronic Absenteeism Crisis: Via The 74: Students are missing class at unprecedented levels. Researcher Jing Liu shares tips for how schools can identify at-risk youth early & intervene.
Children's Privacy Bills: Via The Hill:
"Two bills that would add regulations on tech companies in a way that aims to increase safety for kids online advanced out of a Senate panel Wednesday with broad bipartisan support."
"The Senate Commerce Committee advanced the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act, also known as COPPA 2.0."
It Costs Nothing: To be kind.