A quick update on the Update. I’m moving to a reduced publishing schedule for the next few weeks as I attend to some family matters and also head out on a long overdue vacation. The updates will likely be more weekly than daily unless a Delta Omicron Platinum+ variant emerges or something rarer occurs like clear guidance from the CDC. I thought about putting Teddy in charge, but that didn’t work out so well the last time we tried it.
It’s been a busy few months and while I feel an immense sense of gratitude for the work I get to do and who I get to do it with, I’m also looking forward to taking some time off to refocus and recharge. Have a great weekend!
Top Three
New York City Budget Cuts: Chalkbeat asks, "Eric Adams is facing pressure to reverse NYC school budget cuts. Should he?"
"The Adams administration has argued that school budget reductions are a necessary response to declining enrollment and avoid an even bigger budget cliff when federal COVID relief runs dry in two years."
"Advocates argue that the $7 billion in federal relief funding earmarked for the city’s schools was meant to help avoid those types of reductions, and there appears to be plenty of it left. The education department has nearly $506 million in relief funding that wasn’t spent last year alone, according to Lander, more than enough to make up for next year’s school budget cuts."
"The Adams administration’s case for the budget cuts boils down to a simple math problem: fewer students equals fewer dollars."
"The result is that school budgets have not been significantly adjusted, even though there are roughly 9% fewer students in the city’s public schools since the pandemic hit (excluding charters). On top of that, city officials are projecting an enrollment drop of 30,000 students next school year, a 3.7% decline."
"Without phasing in cuts now, the city will hurtle over a fiscal cliff in two years that will require even more “dramatic” reductions, schools Chancellor David Banks warned in June. “Our stimulus funding is running out, so we made a decision to begin the process of weaning the schools off of the stimulus funding,” he said."
In-Class Transmission at a Large Urban University With Public Health Mandates: Study.
"In this cohort study of 140,000 class meetings at a large US university, there were over 850 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified through weekly surveillance testing of all students and faculty on campus during the fall 2021 semester."
"Of more than 140,000 in-person class events and a total student population of 33 000 between graduate and undergraduate students, only 9 instances of potential in-class transmission were identified, accounting for 0.0045% of all classroom meetings."
"Our data support the hypothesis that a combination of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and risk mitigation measures including indoor masking, regular surveillance testing, and enhanced air filtration can be highly effective at limiting disease spread within a large university academic environment to the extent that classroom transmission risk is negligible."
Job Growth Surged In July: Via BLS.
CNBC: “Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying signs that the economic recovery is losing steam."
“Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6% respectively.”
“Wage growth also surged higher, as average earning earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago. Those numbers add fuel to an inflation picture that already has consumer prices rising at their fastest rate since the early 1980s.”
WSJ: "The disconnect between the growing job market and otherwise faltering economy boils down to one key point: Despite slowing consumer demand, the supply of workers to make goods and provide services has been considerably below companies’ needs."
NYT: "The impressive performance — which brings total employment back to its level of February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns — provides new evidence that the United States has not entered a recession."
Jason Furman is worried: "What worries me re inflation is avg hourly earnings were up at a 5.8% AR in July. June revised to 5.4% (up from 3.8%). The wage moderation we were all discussing last month was simply wrong data."
Covid-19 Research
Paxlovid: There were 1.26 million courses dispensed last month, a 37% increase over June. Additionally, more Paxlovid was dispensed in July than was prescribed from January through May combined.
Novavax: Has started a study to evaluate the safety, effectiveness, and efficacy of two doses of the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine in children aged six months through 11 years after a booster at six months.
COVID-Related Stillbirths Didn’t Have to Happen: Via ProPublica
"Unvaccinated women who contracted COVID-19 during pregnancy were at a higher risk of stillbirths. They also were more likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit, give birth prematurely or die. Yet their greatest protection — the COVID-19 vaccine — sat largely untouched, buried under doubt, polluted by disinformation."
"Pharmaceutical companies and government officials failed to ensure that pregnant people were included in the early development of the COVID-19 vaccine, a calamitous decision made amid the urgency of a rapidly spreading pandemic. That decision left pregnant people with little research to rely on when making a critical decision on how best to keep the babies growing inside of them safe."
"At the same time that research was excluding pregnant people from vaccine trials, a full-scale assault on vaccination was unfolding online. Taking advantage of the lack of data, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers and even some medical professionals spread false claims about the vaccine’s safety in pregnancy, leading many pregnant people to delay or refuse the vaccine. Even now, with numerous studies unequivocally announcing the safety of the vaccine for pregnant people, some doctors have failed to communicate the dangers of COVID-19 to pregnant people or the vaccine’s role in mitigating it."
"Although stillbirths were rare overall, babies were dying. The risk of a stillbirth nearly doubled for those who had COVID-19 during pregnancy compared with those who didn’t. And during the spread of the delta variant, that risk was four times higher."
How Caitlin Rivers' Family is Approaching School and Covid This Year: Via her Substack. "I am an infectious disease epidemiologist with kids in both daycare and elementary school. In both my personal and professional lives, I have many occasions to think about germs. Here is how my family is approaching the next pandemic school year."
State
California: Plans to double school counselors amid shortage.
Illinois: Chicago expands summer program offerings, but enrollment still lags.
Maryland: Montgomery County Public Schools has more than 400 support staff openings, 270 full-time teaching positions.
International
Escalating Tensions With China:
"China fired 11 ballistic missiles into waters close to ports in Taiwan and conducted other military drills on Thursday, in an attempt to punish the country for hosting a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi... Taipei also said four drones had flown over islets next to Kinmen, the Taiwan-controlled island just off the Chinese coastal city of Xiamen — the second such overflight of Taiwan-held offshore islands during the current Chinese exercises and the third time in the past week."
Blinken: China military drills are ‘significant escalation’
China halts dialogue with U.S. on military, climate over Pelosi Taiwan trip. China also suspended 2,066 imports from Taiwan. 64% of all products.
WSJ: "China’s Drills Around Taiwan Give Hint About Its Strategy."
"The proximity of the action to ports and shipping lanes has forced some delays for cargo and aviation, a small taste of the pain China could inflict on Taiwan and world markets. The self-governed island is a leading producer of the advanced semiconductors critical to products from cars to advanced weaponry."
FP: "This week’s short-term, predictable, known, and measured military drills from China are scary. They are a clear escalation in military intimidation from that country. But they are not at the level of existentialism and are not bringing the situation to the brink of war, as previous crises had."
Resources
Why Schools Are Still Struggling to Hire Bus Drivers, Custodians, Tutors: Via Chalkbeat
New School Year, No Mask Rules for Most of the US: Via Chalkbeat.
Majority of Parents Say Schools’ Customer Service Needs Improvement: Via K12 Dive.
"During the 2021-22 school year, 87% of parents reached out to their school district more than once — with 44% reaching out at least six times."
"Some 82% of parents said they were very satisfied or satisfied with the district’s customer service when they reached out to the school system. But just over 60% of K-12 public school parents and guardians said there was “room for improvement” in the helpfulness, timeliness and courteousness of the customer service experience with their school district. Some of those polled said district responses weren’t always courteous or timely."
"Nearly three out of four parents said they couldn’t always identify the right person to help them with their question or concern."
A Dozen States Have Tax-Free School Shopping This Weekend: Axios with the details on Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. The Federation of Tax Administrators has more.
75,000 Ducks: Into the Chicago River to benefit the Special Olympics. "A race... a very slow... methodical race... as Bert and Ernie weep..."
Nightbirde: Moving AGT segment with Simon reflecting on Nightbirde: "It's important that everyone knows that I'm more than the bad things that happened to me." At the 10:43 mark.
It's Back to School: Just imagine how different your teenage years would have been if the coolest kids in school all of a sudden decided that... you mattered.