Covid-19 Policy Update #606
Wednesday 11/9
Tonight's update is a little late because I had anticipated winning the $2 billion Powerball jackpot. Alas, I did not but at least I have my FTX investment. Also, in the words of Dave Wasserman, "Well, that was the craziest Election Night I’ve ever seen." And it isn’t over yet. There are still a number of outstanding races which will determine the control of both the House and Senate, including a number of down-ballot races that have important implications for education. In the meantime, I’ve included some articles that offer some early reflections, but more to come.
Top Three
Lifting Universal Masking in Schools — Covid-19 Incidence Among Students and Staff: NEJM study
"Before the statewide masking policy was rescinded, trends in the incidence of Covid-19 were similar across school districts."
"During the 15 weeks after the statewide masking policy was rescinded, the lifting of masking requirements was associated with an additional 44.9 cases per 1000 students and staff (95% confidence interval, 32.6 to 57.1), which corresponded to an estimated 11,901 cases and to 29.4% of the cases in all districts during that time."
"Districts that chose to sustain masking requirements longer tended to have school buildings that were older and in worse condition and to have more students per classroom than districts that chose to lift masking requirements earlier."
"In addition, these districts had higher percentages of low-income students, students with disabilities, and students who were English-language learners, as well as higher percentages of Black and Latinx students and staff."
"Our results support universal masking as an important strategy for reducing Covid-19 incidence in schools and loss of in-person school days. As such, we believe that universal masking may be especially useful for mitigating effects of structural racism in schools, including potential deepening of educational inequities."
New National Working Group Takes on the Future of Education Data — and Equity: Via the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Caitlin Codella Low in The 74.
"At the chamber, we believe that reliable data drives good decision making. Given the uncertainty around pandemic recovery and a national reckoning on systemic inequities, business and education stakeholders must have a clear-eyed discussion about what is and is not working, and why, with public school accountability and the data to back it up."
"That’s why the U.S. Chamber Foundation has put together a working group of education experts and practitioners from across the country to work toward a set of policy recommendations over the next year on lessons learned and options to consider moving forward."
"This three-year project will craft a blueprint for a future of data, assessments and accountability that rejects the soft bigotry of low expectations and embraces the economy and society of the future. The recommendations developed from this initiative will inform and shape policymakers’ approach at both the state and federal levels by bringing fresh thinking to the most important investment we can make — the nation’s students."
Pediatric Deaths Due to COVID-19 Remain Very Low: Study.
"These findings confirm that death due to COVID-19 remained rare in children and young people even as new variants of the SARS-Cov-2 virus emerged during the study period. They also highlight which children might be at greater risk of COVID-19 death, which could help inform parents, clinicians, and policymakers about prevention through vaccination, for example, and seeking early treatment.
Election 2022
How a G.O.P. Wave Became a Ripple: "So America leaves these midterms much as it entered: a fiercely divided country that remains anchored in a narrow range of the political spectrum, unhappy enough with President Biden to embrace divided government but unwilling to turn fully to the divisive, grievance-driven politics promoted by former President Donald J. Trump."
"Voters re-elected Republican governors in Florida, Georgia and Texas. They returned Democrats to power in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And for all the record-shattering sums spent on campaigns and TV ads in the 2022 midterms ... the country is likely waking up on Nov. 9 much as it did on Nov. 8: split roughly in two."
WSJ: "Hispanic and Black voters continue to vote solidly for Democrats, however there has been a shift in the Republicans’ favor since 2018. Younger Black voters moved a substantial 22 percentage points toward Republicans in 2022. White women in the suburbs flipped to the Republicans after favoring Democrats in the past two elections."
Politico: "How Biden and Trump squelched the red wave."
Kristen Soltis Anderson: "Last night before the polls closed, I said I thought it was likely we’d think of this as the “any port in a storm” election - that voters might not like their options but would look for security and stability in uncertain times."
Jessica Taylor: “This election was a rebuke of the former president — but will Republicans actually hold him accountable, as a 2024 announcement looms? Trump elevated damaged candidates simply because they would show fealty to him, not be the best choice to flip a seat from blue to red. Republicans should blame him for snatching possible defeat from the jaws of victory, but will there be any real backlash?... In fact, Trump could enter a new presidential cycle even worse off than he was before in battleground states, with Democratic governors holding on in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and even the possibility of state legislatures in the latter two states flipping from red to blue. So much for trying to get a legitimate presidential result overturned.”
Tony Thurmond cruises to reelection as California state superintendent.
Texas Republicans against “critical race theory” win seats on the State Board of Education, strengthening its GOP majority.
NM voters approve amendment to spend more money on early childhood education.
DeSantis, conservatives score more Florida school board wins.
Democratic trifecta gains in Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, and Minnesota will put the total trifecta numbers at historic highs. If these numbers hold, 2023 will see 41 states with one political party in control of both chambers of the legislature as well as the governorship — the highest number of trifectas in the modern era.
What Will the 2022 Midterm Elections Mean for Education? Video of the discussion with Derrell Bradford, Rick Hess, Bethany Little, Nat Malkus, and Andy Rotherham.
Exit Polls included some education questions.
Covid Research
"Risk of Rare Heart Inflammation May Be Higher After Moderna Than Pfizer COVID Vaccine: CIDRAP on a new study.
"Myocarditis and pericarditis are rare after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, but rates of the inflammatory heart conditions were twofold to threefold higher after receipt of the second dose of the Moderna vaccine than after the Pfizer/BioNTech formulation, suggests a head-to-head comparison in Canadian adults."
State
Virginia: Virginia has more teachers leaving the workforce than newly licensed teachers entering it, according to a report from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission.
Resources
Wonkathon 2022: We must reinvent high schools, but state policies stand in the way. How do we remove them?
Narrowly Missed: The target.
Hoeg crushed the NEJM study. Please bring that into your reporting.