Covid-19 Policy Update #614
Thursday 12/1
Top Three
NCES: 2021 NAEP School and Teacher Questionnaire Special Study with some fascinating results to a set of questions with answers broken out by state and district.
What support did schools provide for distance learning?" Half or more schools in most participating states and districts provided digital devices to all students for the 2020–21 school year.
How did schools and teachers support students to address gaps in learning that may have occurred because of school closures?: More than 50 percent of teachers in most states and districts in the study used diagnostic assessments monthly to evaluate gaps.
How confident were teachers in facing the challenges of distance learning?: Ninety percent or more of teachers in most states and districts in the study indicated confidence in conducting distance-learning lessons.
Covid Becomes Plague of Elderly, Reviving Debate Over ‘Acceptable Loss’: Via the Washington Post.
"More than 300 people are still dying each day on average from covid-19, most of them 65 or older, according to data from the CDC. While that’s much lower than the 2,000 daily toll at the peak of the delta wave, it is still roughly two to three times the rate at which people die of the flu — renewing debate about what is an “acceptable loss.”
"Today, nearly 9 in 10 covid deaths are in people 65 or older — the highest rate ever, according to a Washington Post analysis of CDC data."
"Epidemiologists tend to divide the pandemic into three distinct periods. In the first year, from March 2020 to March 2021, the United States experienced about 500,000 deaths. The toll was about the same the following year. In the third year, the nation is on track to lower that count significantly, to 150,000 to 175,000 deaths — barring a curveball in the form of a new variant.'
"That means that coronavirus is likely to rank third as a cause of death this year. By comparison, heart disease and cancer kill roughly 600,000 people each year; accidents, 170,000; stroke, 150,000; and Alzheimer’s, 120,000. Flu, in contrast, kills 12,000 to 52,000."
Why Are Americans Fleeing Public Schools?: Via the Washington Post: "The government projects that K-12 public school enrollment — already facing demographic pressures — will drop further to about 46 million students by fall 2030, according to the NCES."
Federal
FCC: SHLB urges FCC to label anchor institutions as broadband serviceable locations which has important implications for schools and the $42 billion in BEAD funding.
Related: I have a short blog post at AEI describing the challenge process which has a January 13, 2023 deadline.
GAO: Criticized ED for its teacher shortage strategy, The 74 reports. "The Department of Education’s plans for addressing teacher shortages do not have all of the elements GAO previously has determined as necessary for successful strategies."
Congress: House Democrats elect Hakeem Jeffries to lead party
DOE: $500 million in grants for Energy Improvements at Public School Facilities.
Covid Research
Effectiveness of mRNA Vaccines Against Infection and Mortality in Children in Argentina: Study
"Estimated vaccine effectiveness against infection was 61.2% in children and 66.8% in adolescents during the delta dominant period and 15.9% and 26.0%, respectively, when omicron was dominant."
"Vaccine effectiveness declined over time, especially during the omicron period, from 37.6% at 15-30 days after vaccination to 2.0% after ≥60 days in children and from 55.8% to 12.4% in adolescents."
"Vaccine effectiveness against death related to infection during omicron predominance was 66.9% in children and 97.6% in adolescents."
Identifying Susceptibility of Children and Adolescents to the Omicron Variant: Study and article.
"The rise in susceptibility to the Omicron/pre-Delta variant was highest in the 10–15 years age group (5.28 times, and the rise in susceptibility to the Omicron/Delta variant was highest in the 15–19 years age group (3.21 times), whereas in those aged 50 years or more, the susceptibility to the Omicron/pre-Omicron remained stable at approximately twofold."
"Even after adjusting for contact pattern, vaccination status, and waning of vaccine effectiveness, the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 tends to propagate more easily among children than the pre-Omicron strains."
COVID-19 Death Rates in Young People Rose in 2021: CIDRAP on a new study (Press release)
"Compared to 2020, mortality rates due to COVID-19 infections among young adults increased significantly in 2021, suggesting younger people had lower vaccine uptake and adhered to fewer COVID precautions than older adults "
FDA Pulls Authorization for Eli Lilly's COVID Drug Bebtelovimab: Via Reuters. The FDA said the drug was not expected to neutralize the dominant BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants of Omicron.
Face Coverings in Schools: UK findings from surveys and qualitative focus groups
"Around half (50%) of pupils and learners (years 7 to 13) agreed to some extent that wearing a face covering helped them to feel safe."
"Three quarters (75%) of pupils and learners (years 7 to 13) agreed to some extent that wearing a face covering helps keep others safe."
"Two thirds (66%) of pupils and learners agreed to some extent that wearing a face covering made communication with teachers or school/college staff difficult. Around half (52%) of pupils and learners agreed to some extent that wearing a face covering made it difficult to communicate with friends."
"One in five pupils and learners in years 7 to 13 (21%) agreed that wearing a face covering had made them feel anxious."
The Number of Babies Hospitalized for COVID-19 Went Up Recently. Here's Why: Via Salon.
"The severity of COVID-19 seemed to scale with age: older adults had higher mortality rates and risks, as opposed to the young. That's what makes a new report from the CDC so alarming, as it notes a surprising spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations for infants under six months old during the omicron variant wave, which spanned from June 2021 to August 2022."
"This does not necessarily mean that infections with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 are more severe than infections with the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2; rather it might reflect the greater transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant relative to the Delta variant," Dr. Sarah Hamid, corresponding author of the CDC report."
State
Arkansas: Governor Hutchinson announces first state partnership with EducationSuperHighway to close broadband affordability gap.
Minnesota: Chad Aldeman flagged this Minneapolis Public Schools budget doc.
New Jersey: In COVID grievance case, Newark teachers win $1 million in back pay, sick days, union leaders say.
Pennsylvania: New state test scores show students haven’t rebounded since the pandemic.
"Among third graders, 52.3% scored proficient or above in ELA, down from 61.9% in 2019; fourth graders, 52.2%, down from 63.6%; fifth graders, 53.6%, down from 58.5%; and sixth graders, 56.1%, down from 63%."
"Math scores, which increased across the board — with the exception of fifth grade — from 2021, but didn’t match 2019 levels. (Among third graders, for instance, math scores increased from 47.3% in 2021 to 47.7% in 2022, but were below 2019′s 56%.)"
Tennessee: Private schools could get $60 million in leftover pandemic relief funds.
International
China:
Financial Times: “Coronavirus vaccinations are one of Xi’s core challenges. According to the latest official data, a third of China’s 267 million people older than 60 have not received their third vaccine dose. The booster is required to attain high levels of protection against the Omicron variant.”
Katelyn Jetelina: “Covid-19 seems to be on the verge of exploding in China. They are reporting record-high numbers—nearly 40,000 new infections per day. The biggest concern is China’s incomplete immunity wall when faced with infections... However, quality (not just quantity) of the vaccine is important. China rolled out Sinopharm and SinoVac—inactivated vaccines that are just not very effective against Omicron... Their booster rate, and specifically who is boosted, is abysmal. Only 30% of 80+ year olds have one booster, for example."
Economist: "But our modelling, based on predictions of the rate at which people become infected and recover or die, suggests that, if the virus spread unencumbered, infections would peak at 45m a day. Around 680,000 people would die, even if vaccines remained potent and all of them received care. In reality vaccines wane and many would go untreated. The need for intensive-care beds would reach 410,000, almost seven times China’s capacity."
Economic Recovery
Future of Work: Unique job opportunity.
The Fed: Chairman Powell's speech this week looked at inflation and the labor market:
"The second factor contributing to the labor supply shortfall is slower growth in the working-age population. The combination of a plunge in net immigration and a surge in deaths during the pandemic probably accounts for about 1-1/2 million missing workers."
"Policies to support labor supply are not the domain of the Fed: Our tools work principally on demand. Without advocating any particular policy, however, I will say that policies to support labor force participation could, over time, bring benefits to the workers who join the labor force and support overall economic growth. Such policies would take time to implement and have their effects, however. For the near term, a moderation of labor demand growth will be required to restore balance to the labor market."
Chicago Fed: Economist Austan Goolsbee will take over as president of the Chicago Federal Reserve early next year.
Served as chairman of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors from 2010-11 under then-President Barack Obama.
He also wrote a paper on E-rate and education achievement.
Inflation: The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% in October, slightly below the estimate. The index increased 5% year over year.
Resources
An Expanded Definition of Student Success Should Guide the Pandemic-era Learning Recovery: Via New Schools.
CRPE: I had a fun conversation with their research team this week. Several requested that I bring back the cocktail pairing with some of the updates. In lieu of that, here’s what they are serving at tonight’s White House State Dinner.
Pandemic Pushed Head Start Enrollment Down by 33%: Via K12 Dive: "Enrollment dropped by 257,000 children — or 33% — between 2018-19 and 2020-21 in the Head Start program for preschoolers and by 22,000 — or 10% — in the Early Head Start program for infants and toddlers."
Carol of the Bells: The Kyiv Children’s Choir arrived in New York City from Poland for a performance at Carnegie Hall on Dec. 4.
Peek A Boo: This is hysterical.
The median age of covid mortality is not fixed. In October it was skewed towards the elderly. In other months, not so much. Report the trend/average, not an exceptional month.