Covid-19 Policy Update #648
Monday 4/10
Top Three
Post COVID-19 Test Score Recovery: Initial Evidence from State Testing Data: NBER paper from Clare Halloran, Claire Hug, Rebecca Jack & Emily Oster.
"We use state test score data to analyze patterns of test score recovery over the 2021-22 school year."
"On average, we find that 20% of test score losses are recovered in English language arts (ELA) by 2022, compared to 37% in math."
"These recovery rates do not significantly vary across demographic characteristics, baseline achievement rates, in-person schooling rates in the pandemic school year, or category-based measures of recovery funding allocations.”
“We observe large state-level variation in recovery rates in ELA – from full recovery to further losses. This evidence suggests state-level factors play an important role in students' academic recovery, but we are unable to isolate particular state factors."
"Most notably, we find that the two states in our sample with the earliest adoption of SOR legislation (Mississippi in 2013 and South Carolina in 2014) are the only two states to fully recover their pandemic learning losses by 2022."
Related: The COVID-19 School Data Hub team, led by Emily Oster, is seeking input from all education professionals, researchers, and journalists who work with state assessment data in a brief survey.
“The purpose of this survey is to better understand how state assessment datasets are currently being used and to better understand areas for growth. The survey is brief and input is much appreciated!”
Six Budget Considerations for Districts as ESSER Fiscal Cliff Looms: Via K12 Dive.
Among districts that will be particularly vulnerable are:
Districts using ESSER funds for recurring financial commitments, such as backfilling their budgets or spending on new hires and permanent raises.
Urban districts, districts with delayed in-person instruction, and Northern states could see lower revenues as a result of enrollment declines.
Districts growing their staff and offering permanent raises that are larger than usual.
Districts that are more dependent on state revenue or are located in states more affected by economic slowdowns.
"Determine magnitude of forecasted budget gaps:" Many districts that Edunomics Lab tracks are forecasting sizable gaps. San Diego, for example, is predicting a 16.5% gap, and Seattle, Houston and Cleveland are all facing gaps slightly larger than 11%, per data."
"It’s common for districts to put off budget cuts, which are often tough to make and unpopular among the public, said Roza. However, if a budget gap represents more than 2% of the district budget, districts will likely have no choice but to cut labor costs, considering labor is a big chunk of district budgets, she added."
End of National Covid Emergency: President Biden has signed into law H.J.Res.7 which terminates the national emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Federal
Senate: The Senate HELP Committee announced a request for input (RFI) on reauthorization of the Education Sciences Reform Act (ESRA):
Senate HELP Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Ranking Member Bill Cassidy (R-LA) released a letter seeking a request for input on policies that the Committee should consider during the reauthorization ESRA.
The Committee is also encouraging stakeholders to propose line edits or other legislative text as a supplement to comments.
Comments must be submitted to the Committee at ESRA2023@help.senate.gov no later than the close of business on Wednesday, April 19, 2023.
Covid Research
Omicron Variant Infection Deadlier Than Flu: CIDRAP on a new studies.
"Two new studies suggest that COVID-19 Omicron variant infection is deadlier than influenza, with one finding that US veterans hospitalized with Omicron in fall and winter 2022-23 died at a 61% higher rate than hospitalized flu patients, and the other revealing that Israeli adults hospitalized with flu were 55% less likely to die within 30 days than those admitted for Omicron in the 2021-22 flu season."
Project Next Gen: The United States Gets Serious for New Covid Vaccines: Via Eric Topol.
State
California:
"More than 30,000 students opted to spend two days during their spring break attending “acceleration days” in Los Angeles Unified, as a way to catch up after last month’s strike and learning loss suffered during Covid, the Daily Breeze reported."
"At a press conference earlier this year, Carvalho said chronic absenteeism has decreased by 10% this academic year."
"In the 2021-2022 school year, 55.4% of students in Board District 2 (BD2) were chronically absent, according to the LAUSD Open Data portal. It was the highest among LAUSD’s seven local districts, higher than the 45.2% of all LA Unified students that were chronically absent that same year."
Florida: Via the AP: Florida Officials cut key data from vaccine study.
"An analysis that was the basis of a highly criticized recommendation from Florida’s surgeon general cautioning young men against getting the COVID-19 vaccine omitted information that showed catching the virus could increase the risk of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the mRNA shot, according to drafts of the analysis obtained by the Tampa Bay Times."
"The early drafts of the analysis obtained by the Times through a records request showed that catching COVID-19 could increase the chances of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the vaccine, but that information was missing from the final version put out by the Florida Department of Health last October."
"In a statement on Twitter posted Saturday in response to the Times’ story, Ladapo said, “It’s not only unfortunate that COVID has corrupted scientists’ ability to think clearly about epidemiology but also sad that people rush to defend a vaccine that has shown increased cardiovascular risk in multiple studies.”
Times: "Now, draft versions of the analysis obtained by the Tampa Bay Times show that this recommendation was made despite the state having contradictory data. It showed that catching COVID-19 could increase the chances of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the vaccine."
"Four epidemiologists who reviewed the drafts said the omission is inexplicable and flawed from a scientific standpoint. They said that, based on the missing data, Ladapo’s recommendation should be rescinded."
"Ladapo cited that number in the state’s nonbinding recommendation, saying the “abnormally high” risk of cardiac complications from a COVID-19 shot “likely” outweighs the benefits of vaccination.That finding was based on 20 deaths, too small a sample size for such a far-reaching conclusion, according to a column by four University of Florida epidemiologists that highlighted concerns and flaws with the analysis. The scientists also noted that Ladapo’s finding was not backed up with clinical data proving that the cause of deaths fits the criteria."
Tennessee: “A state law could hold back thousands of third graders in bid to help kids recover from the pandemic.”
Economic Recovery
Jobs Report: Employment rose by 236,000 last month. Jobs growth averaged 345,000 a month in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 561,000 in the same period last year.
Domestic Factories Booming: Via WSJ: "Construction spending related to manufacturing reached $108 billion in 2022, Census Bureau data show, the highest annual total on record. Much of the growth is coming in the high-tech fields of electric-vehicle batteries and semiconductors, national priorities backed by billions of dollars in government incentives."
"Manufacturing employment is holding steady at about 10% of the private sector, according to the BLS, with nearly 800,000 jobs added in the sector over the past two years. The industry is actually hurting for workers—about 800,000 more are needed, according to the National Association of Manufacturers—leading to concerns that labor shortages and other bottlenecks could short-circuit the boom."
Fastest Growing and Shrinking States: Via Axios.
Resources
School District Mission Statements Highlight a Partisan Divide Over Diversity, Equity and Inclusion in K-12 Education: Pew report studied 1,314 mission statements from public school districts and found that 80% of all mission statements mention “future readiness,” 56% of Democratic-area school districts mention diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in their mission statements while 26% of Republican-area school districts include DEI.
Burbio School Tracker: Retirements & Terminations
Broadband: A First Look at the Evolving National Broadband Map
"At the highest level, since Dec 2022, more than 20 million records have been changed in the National Broadband Map: around 11.5 million locations had service removed by a provider, around 6.4 million had service added, and around 3 million had service modified."
"Overall, the National Broadband Map has seen a net increase of 1.98M served locations, but this varies significantly from state to state. Illinois and Puerto Rico lead the way with more than 1.7M and 620k locations added, respectively. On the flip side, California has seen more than 240k locations removed, with Mississippi and Washington state following with 63k and 50k (our state of Virginia is in fourth place, removing 27k locations)."
Data 101: A Briefing Book for Policymakers on Education to Workforce Data: Via DQC
A Puppy Drumming: Henry David Thoreau: "If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away."
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